(Quebec) Inflation would have peaked this summer and will decline “more significantly” this fall, estimates Quebec Finance Minister Eric Girard.
Posted at 4:25 p.m.
But since the cost of living has increased more than expected, the government’s intention to send an additional check to Quebecers if he is re-elected is still relevant, according to him.
Coming out of a Cabinet meeting on Wednesday, Eric Girard explained that the most recent statistics indicate that “the peak in North America was in June” in terms of the inflation rate.
In Canada, inflation rose to 8.1%, a level not seen since 1983.
“There can always be fluctuations, but with the information we have now, the second quarter in both the United States and Canada, that’s when we would have had the peak of inflation,” he said. he argued. The forecasts of all economists is that inflation will remain high in the third quarter – July, August, September – to begin a more significant descent in the fourth quarter. »
To cope with the rising cost of living, the government paid $500 to 6.4 million Quebecers last spring. François Legault has already indicated that he intends to send a new check this fall, if he is re-elected on October 3. His promise will be detailed in the election campaign.
This additional financial assistance is still relevant even if the peak of inflation has been reached, according to Éric Girard. “The budget forecast was for 4.7% inflation for 2022. Since that time, with the invasion in Ukraine, we have observed an average of 6.5% inflation. Inflation is much higher than what we had indicated in the budget, which could indicate that there is a need for additional compensation,” he said.
The Prime Minister also dangled a promise of tax cuts.
Eric Girard had already calculated the risk of a recession at 35%. “The order of magnitude I had given is still good,” he said. For “all the economists” in the private sector, “it fluctuates between 25% and 50%”.
The Consumer Price Index for July will be released on August 16.
With the collaboration of Fanny Lévesque, The Press