Already overwhelmed, Quebec hospitals will soon be more overwhelmed. From 1,600 to 2,100 ordinary beds could be occupied by patients with COVID-19 in the coming weeks, forecasts the National Institute of Excellence in Health and Social Services (INESSS).
According to INESSS’s first hypothesis, within three weeks, some 1,600 infected patients will occupy ordinary beds. And no less than 300 patients would end up in intensive care.
The second scenario is darker. Within three weeks, 2,100 regular beds and 375 intensive care beds would be occupied by patients with COVID-19. These figures would exceed the thresholds reached in previous waves of COVID-19.
Already, elective surgeries are being reduced to a minimum in hospitals across the province. The two scenarios published on Thursday by INESSS provide for an even greater load shedding for the benefit of patients with COVID-19. For the time being, the hospital network is at level 3 of the load shedding plan presented by the Ministry of Health and Social Services (MSSS), out of a maximum of 4.
At this point, it is too late to turn the tide, says Nathalie Grandvaux, researcher at the Laboratory for Research on the Host Response to Viral Infections at the Center hospitalier de l’Université de Montréal (CHUM).
“Even if we add measures today, they will not have an effect for two weeks,” explains the researcher. These two weeks correspond to the interval between the increase in COVID-19 cases and the increase in the number of hospitalizations, she specifies.
Unfortunately, for the next two weeks, we will see a very serious increase in patients and an overflow in our hospitals.
Nathalie Grandvaux, researcher at the CHUM’s research laboratory on the host’s response to viral infections
Even if, according to some studies, the Omicron variant is less virulent than Delta, its impact will be significant on the hospital network, because it is more contagious, recalls the researcher.
“With the spread that we currently have, we must especially not be based on the fact that it is more moderate. It is a mistake that should not be made, because otherwise, we will just amplify the problem, ”insists Nathalie Grandvaux.
However, current data show that vaccination does protect against severe forms of the disease.
If we had not had the full vaccination [à deux doses], we would have seen a very large number of deaths.
Nathalie Grandvaux, researcher at the CHUM’s research laboratory on the host’s response to viral infections
Two doses of messenger RNA vaccines offer 70% protection against severe forms of the Omicron variant, she points out. However, this protection decreases over time, hence the importance of obtaining a third dose of vaccine.
Strong spread in RPAs
Meanwhile, COVID-19 continues to spread in private seniors’ residences (RPAs). According to the latest data released Thursday, four RPAs are in the red zone, meaning that more than 30% of their residents are infected with COVID-19. These establishments are located in the Outaouais, Lanaudière, Capitale-Nationale and Saguenay – Lac-Saint-Jean regions.
Then, five residences are in the orange zone. On average, 17% of their residents are infected with COVID-19.
CHSLDs are also affected by COVID-19 outbreaks. In total, nine establishments were in the red zone on Thursday, in the regions of Montreal, Montérégie, Outaouais, Mauricie and Lanaudière. On average, 38% of residents have been diagnosed positive for COVID-19.
The DD Élise Boulanger, co-chair of the community of practice of physicians in residential and long-term care centers (CHSLDs), reminds us that “the first signals indicate that the disease, when we have three doses, is less severe”.
But because seniors may have a weaker immune response to the vaccine, their health is more likely to deteriorate if they are infected with COVID-19. “People who are in CHSLDs are often there because they have comorbidities”, that is to say multiple affections or diseases, for example, at the level of the heart or the kidneys, explains Mme Baker. “That also makes them more vulnerable. ”
Over 16,000 cases
Quebec will report more than 16,000 new cases of COVID-19 on Friday, Prime Minister François Legault said at a press conference Thursday evening.
Earlier, Quebec had reported 14,188 new cases of COVID-19 as of Thursday, as well as nine additional deaths. Hospitalizations were on the rise; 135 more have been identified.
The new cases reported Thursday brought the seven-day average of daily cases to 10,787. The trend was thus up 106%.
The number of people hospitalized with COVID has doubled in a week. A total of 939 patients sick with COVID-19 are hospitalized. Of these, 138 are in intensive care, 16 more than the day before.
The nine additional deaths bring the daily average to eight. This is double the amount of the previous week.
Regarding vaccination, 84.9% of Quebecers have received at least a first dose of vaccine. Those who received two injections represent 77.8% of the province’s population. Finally, 14.7% of Quebecers received their third dose of the vaccine.
Earlier this week, the Minister of Health and Social Services, Christian Dubé, called to distinguish hospitalizations where a patient is admitted because he has COVID-19 from other hospitalizations, for example for a broken leg , where the patient tests positive for COVID-19. The minister estimates that 25% of hospitalizations currently identified as related to viruses are, in fact, motivated by other reasons.
“We are trying to extract these cases. It’s very difficult and we asked the INSPQ to come back to us, ”said Christian Dubé at a press conference on Thursday. For the moment, the minister says he observes the data on discharges from hospitals. “I will encourage myself if I can see the exits go up,” he said.