The most recent projections from the National Institute of Excellence in Health and Social Services (INESSS) predict a “marked increase” in hospitalizations over the coming weeks. As a result, the hospital capacity planned for patients with COVID-19 could be reached as early as January 8.
In its weekly projections presented Thursday afternoon, INESSS took into account the “growing presence of the Omicron variant” and data “from a scientific publication integrating real life data from South Africa”.
“According to this scenario applied to our context, the strong growth in the number of cases should translate into a marked increase in the number of daily hospitalizations over the coming weeks and, consequently, in the occupancy rate of regular and intensive care beds. », Indicates INESSS in a press release.
If the projections are maintained, the occupancy of hospital beds “should reach level 1 defined by the MSSS within 3 weeks”, indicates INESSS. This means that the 700 hospital beds available for patients with COVID-19 could be fully occupied.
SOURCE: INESSS
On Twitter, the Minister of Health Christian Dubé, indicates that according to the INESSS scenario on the Omicron variant, “the increase in cases would result in an increase in hospitalizations. Hospital capacity could be reached as of January 8 ”.
INESSS emphasizes that the confidence intervals with these projections are wide, in particular because the projections are based essentially on a single study on the Omicron variant. “This study was carried out in South Africa on a population with a vaccination rate as well as different characteristics”, indicates INESSS, which calls for caution in interpreting the results.
On Tuesday, Minister Dubé said he was waiting to see these projections before deciding on whether or not to maintain the gatherings for the Holidays. The government is due to take stock at 6 p.m. Thursday on this subject.