It’s a quick stopover: a bilateral meeting then a dinner. And the discussions are not going to be easy on the main subject, which is the war in Ukraine. Officially, New Delhi has held a very politically correct speech from the start: “We are for peace, nobody has anything to gain from this war, dialogue is the only way to resolve this conflict”.
But behind this speech, in fact, India has rather sided with Moscow, which is a long-time partner with whom Narendra Modi does not want to get angry. Despite Western pressure, New Delhi refrained from condemning the Russian invasion during the two votes organized at the UN in March. And India also refuses any sanction against Moscow. It goes further. From the end of March, following a visit by the head of Russian diplomacy to India, New Delhi agreed with Moscow to buy millions of barrels of Russian oil at a reduced price. The two capitals also want to create a payment mechanism in rubles and rupees, a way to circumvent Western sanctions.
Several reasons explain this Indian desire not to get angry with Moscow. First of all, Moscow is New Delhi’s leading arms supplier: anti-aircraft defense systems, purchase of S400 missiles, maintenance of combat aircraft. India is the third largest defense budget in the world, the second largest army in the world by the size of the workforce. And New Delhi needs Russian support to stand up to its neighbours, Pakistan and China, in border areas under high tension where clashes are recurrent.
Narendra Modi has also developed a populist and nationalist governance, with increasingly religious accents, which in this case advocates the supremacy of Hinduism. And we can clearly see the affinities there with the authoritarian “model” à la Putin, where there too the religious accents have become more marked over the years, with the support of the Patriarch of the Orthodox Church of Moscow.
Nevertheless Paris still wants to spare New Delhi. Moreover, Narendra Modi is the first foreign leader that Emmanuel Macron has met since his re-election. So there is still a symbol. And the Indian Prime Minister wanted to add this Parisian stopover to his European tour, which also took him to Germany and Denmark.
Paris spares New Delhi for lots of reasons. First, India is a giant, whose economic and political weight continues to grow. By 2030, it will be the most populous country on the planet, with 1.4 billion inhabitants, ahead of China. Next, India is a key element of France’s geopolitical strategy, in the so-called Indo-Pacific zone where Paris experienced difficult times last year, with Australia’s about-face in the purchase of submarines. There is also a commercial interest: France also sells weapons to New Delhi. In particular Rafale planes, 36 in total for six years. Finally, India is considered, rightly, by Paris, as a pivot in the fight against global warming. Impossible to limit the rise in temperatures without a massive commitment from India to abandon its ultra-polluting coal-fired power stations as quickly as possible. That’s a lot of arguments. So we turn a blind eye to Ukraine.