India will become world’s most populous country by end of April, overtaking China, UN agency says

It is a certainty: India will soon have more inhabitants than China, and will become the most populous country in the world. But when ? “By the end of this month [d’avril]”, announced the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations (DESA), Monday, April 24. To this date, “India’s population is expected to reach 1,425,775,850, equaling and then surpassing the population of mainland China”estimates this agency.

She recognizes, however, a great “uncertainty”. On April 19, the United Nations Population Fund was more confident that India would overtake China by mid-2023. “The precise moment of this crossing is not known with certainty and never will be”acknowledged Monday John Wilmoth, director of the population division of Desa.

China’s population decreased in 2022

The two countries have opposite demographic dynamics. In 2022, according to official Chinese data, the country’s population has decreased for the first time since 1960-1961 and the consequences of the famine that followed the “Great Leap Forward”. This demographic decline is explained in particular by the cost of living in China, despite the end of the one-child policy – the Chinese can now have three children.

“Projections indicate that the size of the Chinese population could fall below one billion by the end of the century”explains the Desa report, which does not take into account the populations of Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao.

“The Indian population is expected to continue to grow for several decades”, says the agency. India has no up-to-date official data on the number of its inhabitants, as it has not carried out a census since 2011. The one planned for 2021 has been postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic. “India will remain the most populous country in the world for a very long time”explained on franceinfo the demographer Gilles Pinson on April 11.