India is expected to overtake China in population by mid-2023

India will soon be the most populous country in the world. India is set to overtake China as the world’s most populous country by mid-2023, according to a report by the United Nations Population Fund (PDF) posted Wednesday, April 19. India’s population will be 1.4286 billion against China’s 1.4257 billion. This report also estimates that the world’s population will have reached 8.045 billion by the same date.

China’s population shrank last year for the first time in more than six decades, official data showed earlier this year. India has no official data on the number of its inhabitants, as it has not carried out a census since 2011. A new census, which is launched once a decade, was due to take place in 2021, but does not could not be done due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Logistical obstacles and political reluctance now prevent it from taking place, and it is unlikely that this large-scale exercise will take place anytime soon. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist government has been accused by critics of deliberately delaying the census so as not to release data on sensitive issues like unemployment ahead of next year’s national elections.