(Quebec) François Legault has already painted a very favorable portrait of the finances of an independent Quebec: he estimated the gains that a sovereign state would then reap at 17 billion over five years.
PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon must present on Monday an overview of the finances of a future state of Quebec.
Mr. Legault had already carried out the same exercise, with different conclusions than those he draws today. In May 2005, then a PQ MP, accountant and former businessman, he had updated all the studies on debt sharing, overlaps and duplication, income and expenses, etc.
PHOTO EDOUARD PLANTE-FRÉCHETTE, LA PRESS
The leader of the Parti Québécois, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon
However, it was a undermined exercise for the Parti Québécois (PQ), since the first “year 1 budget” presented by Jacques Parizeau in 1973 and discredited by his federalist adversaries, had undoubtedly contributed to the failure of the party in the elections. general elections of that year.
But François Legault, resolutely sovereignist at the time, believed in it. This was well before he abandoned the PQ in 2009 and founded the CAQ in 2011. Today he brandishes the threat of job losses in the event of independence and repeats that Quebecers “don’t want a referendum”.
The “old fears”
The document that Mr. Legault signed in 2005 “dispels old fears about the economic precariousness of a sovereign Quebec and calls into question the arguments about the so-called profitability of federalism,” he wrote in the preface.
“It is not only relevant today, the sovereignty project, but it has become urgent,” he even declared, in a television segment that the Parti Québécois (PQ) took over to promote its announcement next Monday.
He then estimated that the financial effect of the revenues recovered from the federal government and the new expenses assumed would amount in total to a surplus of 17 billion for a sovereign Quebec over 5 years, between 2005 and 2010, supporting figures, “a times the full effect of the savings generated by the elimination of overlapping costs.
In return, he estimated that a Quebec which would remain a province was heading towards an accumulated deficit of 3.3 billion over five years, due to the more rapid increase in expenses compared to its income and the “fiscal imbalance” with the federal.
By cross-referencing this data, Mr. Legault therefore concluded that sovereign Quebec would ultimately have “room for maneuver” of 13.8 billion after five years, by assuming the same programs and services as the federal government, it was specified.
In his evaluations, the PQ elected official estimated that Quebec would recover an average of 20% of federal revenues, or 37 billion out of 185.7 billion at the time. He also estimated that Quebec would have to deprive itself of 9.6 billion in federal transfers.
Mr. Legault also ruled that all Quebec civil servants employed by the federal government would be integrated into the Quebec public service.
Federal debt
Of course, the then PQ MP also focused on the federal debt, which was under control at the time, 10 years after the change of direction given by Prime Minister Jean Chrétien: at the time Ottawa was raking in a massive budget surplus 9 billion!
Quebec therefore had to assume its share of the federal liabilities then estimated at 693 billion, namely the debt, retirement accounts and other liabilities.
Depending on the various calculations and studies at the time, this share is estimated at 18.2%: therefore independent Quebec was to inherit 126 billion in federal liabilities, but would also have recovered 32 billion in federal assets, calculated Mr. Legault.
It was almost 20 years ago.
In a study cited by Mr. Legault in his exercise, the Conference Board of Canada predicted that the federal government would amass a budget surplus of 80 billion per year in 2019-2020.
This is obviously not what happened.
In eight years, the federal debt has doubled, going from 628 billion to 1,220 billion and the size of the federal public service has increased by 40%, deplored Paul St-Pierre Plamondon this week. He then challenged Mr. Legault in the House by denouncing the waste of Quebec public funds by Ottawa.
The sharing of the federal debt will therefore be an essential part of the document that the PQ leader will submit on Monday.
His CAQ opponent François Legault likes to remind him that Quebec is currently the beneficiary of an annual payment of 13 billion in equalization, much more than when he prepared his portrait of the finances of a sovereign Quebec in 2005.
Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon estimates the real equalization at around 9.6 billion, since Quebec itself contributes to the equalization program.
“The leader of the Parti Québécois has just admitted, in front of everyone, that on net, Quebec receives 9.6 billion more than what we send to Ottawa,” attacked Mr. Legault at the Salon bleu this week .
The PQ’s analysis also estimates the savings to be made due to the end of duplication and overlap with the federal government at $8 billion. These savings would in fact be cutbacks, according to the CAQ leader, who challenged Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon in the House.
“Could he tell Quebecers on Monday how many Quebecers would lose their jobs with the $8 billion cuts? » he asked.
The answer will come on Monday.
Already, in an interview with Quebec JournalMr. St-Pierre Plamondon instead replied that independence will generate an economic boom in Quebec.
This is what Mr. Legault could have believed in 2005, but not in 2023.