ExxonMobil researchers were using sophisticated climate models as early as the 1970s, which predicted with remarkable accuracy the temperature increase until now. This conclusion of a published study puts the American oil firm in the hot seat.
“We already knew that ExxonMobil executives knew the world was getting warmer even as they argued that we might have a new ice age,” says study lead author Geoffrey Supran of Harvard University. . “Our analysis of ExxonMobil’s climate models confirms beyond doubt that the public statements of its executives contradicted their own internal research. »
The study, published in the journal Science, shows that the dozen climate models developed by ExxonMobil between 1977 and 2003 predicted an increase in the global average temperature of 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade, which corresponds to reality. Their “performance” (skill score) was on average 75%, whereas the public climate models of the 1980s (presented to the American Congress in 1988) had a performance of 28% to 81%.
“We hope that our work will help in the lawsuits against ExxonMobil, says the Harvard physicist. Just as tobacco companies have been forced to compensate society for claims that run counter to their own research, oil companies should pay some of the costs of climate change. »