In Uzbekistan, is a revolution from above a revolution?

In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping launched the titanic New Silk Roads project, officially called the Belt and Road Initiative. Since then, some 150 countries have joined this initiative aimed, among other things, at building roads, railways and ports to promote trade with China. Ten years later, The duty visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, two countries at the heart of these new trade routes. Fifth in a series of eight travel journals.

After more than a week spent traveling the roads of Kazakhstan, it is time to board a taxi to cross the dunes and the sunburnt lands that take us to the border of Uzbekistan, located a hundred kilometers from Chimkent.

In a cacophony typical of side roads, we cross the customs post on foot to reach this doubly landlocked country (surrounded by countries which are themselves deprived of access to the ocean), the most densely populated in Central Asia. , on which a real wind of openness has been blowing since the death, in 2016, of the former dictator Islam Karimov. A breath of fresh air, described as a “revolution from above” by some analysts, but which does not, however, shake the authoritarian base of the regime.

A few dozen kilometers after crossing the border, we reach Tashkent, the Uzbek capital of 2.6 million inhabitants, with its immense eight-lane boulevards lined with impressive white buildings which inevitably recall the country’s Soviet past. In Golubye Kupola Park, on a terrace in full view of everyone, we meet Kamoliddin Rabbimov, a political analyst who returned to the country 2 years ago, after a 14-year forced exile in France.

“There is a kind of authoritarian peace at the moment in Uzbekistan, whereas during Karimov’s time it was a harsher authoritarianism,” he analyzes. A political climate which reassured him enough that in 2021, the man decided to cross the Uzbek border with his wife and three children, after being pushed out in 2007. “It was a campaign of terror [à l’époque], remembers the one who publicly opposed the Karimov regime. The police were watching my apartment, my neighbors had been questioned, I couldn’t find work. »

Stateless persons

Despite the relaxation of the regime, Kamoliddin Rabbimov’s return to his native land did not go smoothly. A year before his death, Karimov — who had ruled Uzbekistan with an iron fist since the country’s independence in 1991 — signed a decree removing the nationality of thousands of Uzbeks living abroad. A strategy to limit the return of opponents to the country and thus prevent them from destabilizing the regime with their revolutionary impulses. A situation which has still not been corrected.

“Look, it says here on my identity card that I am a person without nationality. I am stateless,” the 46-year-old man told us, to our incredulous faces.

A status which does not, however, prevent Mr. Rabbimov from publicly taking a critical look at the regime in place, in particular through publications on social networks and programs broadcast on his YouTube channel. “There is now a reduced freedom of expression, which is not great, but which allows us to criticize, to highlight social, economic, geopolitical problems. But you have to be careful because if you criticize too strongly, those in power can immediately send you a signal,” he explains in almost impeccable French. “So I have to find the balance between showing the problems and thinking about my safety. »

Opening of the regime

This room for maneuver, tenuous but very present, reflects the greater openness shown by the regime of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev since coming to power in 2016. Quickly, the one who was previously prime minister under Karimov had launched a series of reforms which led to the release of political prisoners, greater liberalization of the economy, a modernization of the judicial system and a certain freedom of speech granted to bloggers.

A softening which had led the review The Economist to name Uzbekistan “country of the year” in 2019 and which has been described by some analysts as a “revolution from above”.

But for Farkhad Tolipov, professor of political science and director of the non-governmental organization Caravan of Knowledge, the word revolution does not correspond to reality. “It’s about repairing the regime, rather than changing it,” he argues, recalling that the word Revolution calls for a change of regime.

“It’s a question of correcting deficiencies in certain aspects of the system that function poorly, especially when it comes to local governments, mayors who, very often, abuse their power and violate human rights. »

First deputy to resign

Despite this wind of change, the country has not yet begun its march towards democracy. There is still no political plurality or free media, and any direct criticism of the president can be repressed.

Last December, Rasul Kusherbayev made a remarkable gesture by becoming the first MP in Uzbekistan to resign from his post. An act that would have been impossible just a few years ago. “It’s not easy to be critical and to publicly express your opinions,” the 36-year-old politician explains to us, seated in a restaurant in the center of Tashkent. It means being under constant pressure. »

At the end of 2022, when the government budget was presented to Parliament, Mr. Kusherbayev, who was a member of President Mirziyoyev’s party, wanted to ask a question, which was refused. “The budget was passed without any discussion,” he says in despair. I couldn’t express myself. Even my party colleagues were against my suggestions. So I decided to no longer work in this Parliament. »

This budget, he said, was modeled on demands from monopolistic companies and privileged circles. “This is not a budget that met the needs of citizens,” says the man who says he defends the interests of the population against those who choose to “serve their own interests.”

At the same time, the former MP, who does not close the door to a return to politics if changes were made, criticizes the control of the executive power over the Uzbek Parliament. “There must be a system of check and balance. I asked questions in Parliament, but now that I have resigned, no one objects anymore. »

According to Mr. Kusherbayev – as for political scientist Farkhad Tolipov – the system is corrupted by older people who lived under the Soviet yoke and who still occupy key positions within the Uzbek state apparatus. “It is impossible for them, with their communist past, to build a democratic society,” mentions the former MP. But I am hopeful that when the younger generation takes office, changes will be made. »

With Askar Djumanov

This report was financed thanks to the support of the Transat-International Journalism Fund.The duty.

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