Targeted by Russian bombings, Ukrainian power plants can no longer supply all regions. The country’s largest private supplier estimates an electricity shortage of between 25 and 35% next winter.
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In Ukraine, 50 kilometers from kyiv, along the Dnipro, the river which crosses the country from north to south, the town of Tripila is known for its Neolithic ceramics but also for its thermal power station which replaced Chernobyl and supplies electricity to three regions including the capital. But in April, the plant was destroyed by Russian strikes. Since then, residents have suffered several hours of power cuts per day. It’s the same across Ukraine, a race against time to repair with winter in the crosshairs.
Youri is moving around with his fishing rods, he has to cast them quickly, the electricity has just come back and the crane can once again stir up the sand on a barge in front of him: “Here the fish bite better because it stirs up the mud.” Behind him, the thermal power station has no longer produced electricity since the Russian strikes in April in the middle of the night. “The missiles returned right into the engine room and fell on two turbines, Yuri says. They are completely destroyed. The third bomb exploded on the roof without hitting the machines. It burned really badly, there was oil in the transformers so it spilled and everything caught fire.”
Black smoke then covers the neighboring town of Oukrainka, the water and electricity networks are immediately cut off. Since then, life has resumed as best it can with power cuts for several hours a day, forcing Agnes, deputy mayor, to get organized: “When there are power cuts, on the way back from shopping or the pharmacy, a little granny cannot go back to her house at 9e floor. We made a list of elderly people with their telephone numbers, their addresses, whether they remain bedridden or whether they can move or not. We have already put in place a transport plan to evacuate them. Because we know that sooner or later, they will continue to attack, attack, attack.”
Ukraine has lost more than 50% of its electricity production. From the start of the war, transformers and lines were targeted, but for three months, it is thermal, hydroelectric power stations and substations that have suffered damage every night. At the same time, some of the nuclear power plants have just been put into maintenance.
This month of June on alternating current is turning into a nightmare for Oleksander, a baker near the Trypilska power station: “This is our oven with logs, we can bake bread.” The wood oven works, the other appliances are now connected to a powerful generator that he had to buy: “Making 300 to 400 kilos of bread per day by hand is impossible… Look at how much dough we have to mix in this machine, it’s 380 volts. This cold room is at three degrees so that the dough ferments properly otherwise it will become sour. Now, we consume around 70 liters of diesel, so that’s 3,500 gryvnias, 80 euros per day.” Only one question torments him: how will the Ukrainians spend the winter?
In a modern tower in Kyiv, the elevator works without interruption. It is the headquarters of Dtek Yasno, the largest private energy supplier. Its CEO, Serrhiye Kovalenko, monitors Ukrainians’ consumption hour by hour, the winter will be harsh but he sees reasons to hope: “First, I hope that the import of electricity from the European Union will increase to 2.5 gigawatts. Second, this fall all nuclear reactors will be operating again. But on the other hand, consumption will increase. We won’t have enough electricity. Even if the strikes stop, I estimate that we will have a 25 to 35% shortage.”
Their infrastructure is 86% destroyed and they need to be rebuilt, says Serhiy Kovalenko: “It will take two years! The main problem to repair is the absence of spare parts already ready. They have to be produced. In certain European countries, there are thermal power stations which are shut down. material from these thermal power plants can be used on our destroyed and bombed power plants. If we are so lucky, it will only take six months…” The problem, he adds, is that once the installations are repaired, we must be able to protect them, but Ukraine lacks anti-aircraft defenses concentrated on large cities.