Time has passed since February 24, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Since then, Ukrainian forces have pushed the enemy back from around the capital, kyiv, which has been able to breathe a little. Fighting continues in the east of the country, and the resistance depends on aid from predominantly Western countries, which observers say are struggling to materialize on the ground, and whose funding is running out of steam.
On Wednesday, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, which is based in Germany and which compiles data on the amounts of money pledged to Ukraine, noted in a new analysis a slowdown between June 8 and the 1er July. “Only a few new promises were added, and they were less substantial,” the Institute points out.
“The financial and military support provided by other countries to Ukraine is not up to what is needed to stabilize the situation,” notes the organization. Overall, the momentum of new commitments is running out of steam. Arms and financial aid continue to be provided only after very long delays. »
Yann Breault, assistant professor of international studies at the Royal Military College Saint-Jean, also notes a “loss of momentum in the scale of aid in recent weeks”, which “is likely to continue in the coming months” . “There are economic uncertainties on the horizon, we are beginning to question the ability to support the Ukrainians financially in the long term,” he said.
It is also a war of attrition, as a quick settlement seems less and less likely. The end of the conflict by a reconquest of the territory as far as Crimea by the Ukrainians or by the signing of a peace treaty which recognizes new borders seems unrealistic, he thinks. “It will poison the security architecture probably for decades to come, so in this context there is a questioning in the West as to how much financial support we can afford to offer Ukrainians” , he points out.
The United States is, by far, the country that funds the most aid to Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion, with an amount of 42.6 billion euros including military, humanitarian and financial aid. This is followed by the institutions of the European Union, with 15.7 billion euros, and the United Kingdom, with funding totaling 6.2 billion euros.
André Frank of the Ukraine Support Tracker team, which compiles the data at the Kiel Institute, notes a change in financial commitments each month. “There may be other reasons,” he adds in an email exchange with The duty. Like countries feeling donation fatigue, or reaching maximum donation capacity. However, at this time we cannot give a definitive answer. [sur l’essoufflement à long terme des dons] based on the data we collect. »
Dominique Arel, holder of the Chair in Ukrainian Studies at the University of Ottawa, does not see any immediate loss of steam. He notes, on the contrary, that the will of politicians to help Ukraine seems to be increasing, taking as proof the last NATO summit, held at the end of June, where member countries indicated their intention to stand up to Russia. “There is an upsurge [du soutien]. But, logistically, is there really a flow of new weapons into Ukraine? Well, that’s hard to know. »
Corruption
The main issue at the moment is not the funding announcement, warns Jean-Pierre Maulny, deputy director of the Institute for International and Strategic Relations, a French think tank. It would rather be “the routing of this one and the training of the Ukrainian soldiers”. “On the other hand, ammunition stocks in Western countries are limited. We must already restock “before sending it to Ukraine, he adds.
Observers note a striking discrepancy between the aid promised and the aid delivered in Ukraine. “Both military and financial deliveries are still below what Ukraine says it needs and what has been promised to the country,” notes the Kiel Institute.
“Some countries deliberately do not disclose any military information, whether it is commitments or deliveries, which leads to discrepancies [entre l’aide promise et distribuée], explains André Frank. Other reasons, such as coordination problems that lead to inability to deliver or delays in delivery, seem possible. »
The problem also lies in the fact that the Ukrainian authorities have not put an end to the corruption, which has undermined the country for several years, believes for his part Yann Breault. “There is material delivered to Ukraine that ends up on the black market and is sent to other conflicts. There are a lot of people who are filling their pockets right now, ”he says.
Will Ukraine hold out?
In the east of the country, fighting continues to rage. The cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk have fallen to the Russians, who hope to take control of all of Donbass and are now on an “operational pause”, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) found.
Russian troops are still carrying out “limited ground offensives and air, artillery and missile strikes on all axes”, according to the ISW. But the institute observes that these are limited “to small-scale actions, the time [que l’armée] rebuild its forces and create the conditions for a larger offensive in the coming weeks or months”.
Considering the military aid provided to Ukraine and the larger stockpiles of weapons on the Russian side, could one envisage a scenario where Russian forces push deeper into Ukrainian territory? “That’s the $100 question,” replies Yann Breault.
“Russia has not yet opened its war machine to full capacity, there is no general mobilization,” he said. There is also a big question mark over the ability of the Russians to produce at a sufficient rate the weapons necessary to continue this war. Opinions are divided, and there is a public relations game. »
It is difficult to know if the current flow of weapons in Ukraine will make it possible to stop the Russian advance or to launch a Ukrainian counter-offensive, adds Dominique Arel. “Nobody knows,” he blurts out.