in Turkey, the opposition is mobilizing a few days before the second round of the presidential election

For the last week of the presidential campaign in Turkey, the outgoing president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is the favorite with 49.5% collected in the first round. But his rival, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, collected 45% of the vote and still hopes to beat him.

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A ballot showing images of the two Turkish presidential candidates, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, on May 20, 2023. (SAFIN HAMID / AFP)

Nationally, Recep Tayyip Erdogan edged Kemal Kiliçdaroglu by 2.6 million votes in the first round. Since no candidate emerged victorious in the first round ballot on May 14, there will therefore be a second round on Sunday May 28. The challenge for each camp is therefore to mobilize undecided voters, because more than eight million voters did not go to vote.

>> Elections in Turkey: a “long presidential evening” in an Istanbul cafe, during an undecided and historic first round between Erdogan and Kiliçdaroglu

The opposition believes that a majority of them are rather favorable to the rival of the outgoing president. “The polls gave us a winner, so part of our electorate did not make the effort to move”explains Ahmet Kiraz, local representative of the CHP, the party of Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. “But we think we can mobilize at least one or two million opposition voters who did not vote in the first round.”

The other opposition camps, potential reserves of votes

The other reserve of votes identified by the opposition: the voters of Sinan Ogan, an ultranationalist who came third in the first round, with 2.8 million votes. It is to seduce them that Kemal Kiliçdaroglu has hardened his speech in recent days, and is attacking Syrian refugees harshly. If Sinan Ogan has not yet chosen a side, according to Ahmet Kiraz, many of his voters have already made their choice.

“These are nationalists reluctant to vote in the first round for Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. We believe that this electorate will still vote mainly for Kiliçdaroglu, because it is above all an electorate that refuses to vote Erdogan.”

Ahmet Kiraz, CHP local representative

at franceinfo

Last possible reserve of votes for Kemal Kiliçdaroglu: the voters of the ultranationalist Iyi party, or Good party, who did not vote for him, even though their formation is a member of the opposition alliance. According to estimates, they represent around 20% of the party’s electorate. Egemen Güner, one of its local officials, half-heartedly admits: “Of course some of our voters who voted Good Party in the legislative elections were able to vote for Sinan Ogan in the presidential election, but this is not a very large percentage. There is no reason to be demoralized.”

“No one has won or lost the election yet. The match resumed with a score of 0-0, and we believe that we can make up for the 5 points that we lack to win Kemal Kiliçdaroglu.”

Egemen Güner, local leader of Bon parti

at franceinfo

It remains to be seen whether the opposition will succeed not only in enlarging its electorate, but also in convincing all its voters in the first round to return to the polls. As an aside, some fear that President Erdogan’s triumphalism will discourage some of them.


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