After 20 years of power Recep Tayyip Erdogan in this country of 85 million inhabitants, the opposition has reason to believe it. The Table of Six, which brings together the main opposition parties, had the greatest difficulty in agreeing on the name of a single candidate. Meral Aksener, who leads the Good Party, the second movement of this coalition, even almost slammed the door. But in the end, logic prevailed. Monday evening March 6, the opposition chose to unite behind Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, leader of the main party of this coalition, the CHP. Kemal Kiliçadaroglu, 74, former head of Turkish Social Security, comes from the left. Above all, he is the repository of the secular tradition of Mustapha Kemal. His style, very calm, earned him the nicknames of “Turkish Gandhi” or “Quiet Force”. And his start to the campaign is successful. With effective speech Tuesday in front of opposition activists and in the presence of other coalition leaders. “This is the start of a total changehammered Kiliçdarogulu. We will give back to the people what was taken from them, and we will overcome together. I’m not the candidate, it’s all of you! ”
14 points ahead for the opposition candidate in a first poll
The first poll is also encouraging for the opposition: 57/43 in favor of Kemal Kiliçdaroglu in the event of a duel against Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Result of this first survey published Wednesday, March 8 and signed by the ORC Research Institute. Opinion polls are not very reliable in Turkey, but the difference is significant and constitutes an encouraging signal for the opposition candidate. Kemal Kiliçdaroglu is supported by two very popular figures, the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavas, once considered as candidates. He is also likely to receive the support of the main Kurdish party, the HDP, which won 12% of the vote in the last elections and which could tip the ballot. Kemal Kiliçdaroglu also traveled a lot to the areas affected by the earthquake of February 6 which killed 45,000 people and which could have a major impact on the outcome of the vote. Many Turks blame Recep Tayyip Erdogan the slow relief and corruption in the construction sector, which explains the collapse of many buildings.
A lack of charisma in the face of the outgoing president
But Recep Tayyip Erdogan obviously did not say his last word. The outgoing president, after 20 years in power, has no intention of letting go. He masters most of the media, can impose a form of censorship on social networks. His charisma hits the bull’s eye during election campaigns. His authoritarianism seduces his electorate. Recep Tayyip Erdogan will also take advantage of his international stature and his ability to mediate between kyiv and Moscow. Opposite, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu lacks charisma, he can suffer from his image as a leftist, and also from his belonging to the religious minority of the Alevis, a minority branch of Islam. The official campaign must therefore start on Friday March 10 with the publication of a presidential decree confirming the date of May 14. Two months before the vote, the games are therefore very open. This is undoubtedly the most decisive election of this year 2023.