In the United States, a start-up offers to bet on the result of the presidential election

At the beginning of September, a Washington judge ruled in favor of this start-up which challenged in court a ban by an American regulatory agency opposed to any legalization of political betting.

Betting on a candidate becomes possible in the United States. In September, a judge authorized an American start-up to take bets on the question: who will control the House of Representatives and the Senate during the elections on November 5? In fact, it was already possible to bet on the elections, but in a roundabout way thanks to websites based abroad.

It’s a bit like when Belgium announces the results of the French presidential election before the French media have the right to do so. Among these sites, we find, for example PredictIt in New Zealand, a non-profit association associated with a university, Victoria University of Wellington. The primary objective remains data collection. Another platform, based in New York, Polymarket, which already generates tens of thousands of dollars by allowing you to bet on a little bit of everything, and therefore also on politics. The authorities blocked the platform in the United States in 2022, but it can operate abroad and therefore remains accessible through a VPN. The trends of these two platforms were also cited by Fox News in addition to the more traditional polls. The Politico site reports that the boss of Polymarket had dinner with Donald Trump or organized a party during the Democratic convention.

At the beginning of September, a Washington judge ruled in favor of Kalshi, a start-up which challenged in court a ban by the CFTC, an American regulatory agency opposed to any legalization of political betting. “It’s finally time to let markets show the world how well they can read through the tumult and give us more truth about what the future holds.”rejoiced the boss of Kalshi, who, like others, believes that betting has the potential to say more than polls about what voters think. The CFTC appealed, so the legal limbo remains, but in the few hours that Kalshi was able to operate legally and offer Americans betting on the results of the House and Senate elections, she says she received 50,000 Paris.

This American regulatory agency is opposed to betting on the presidential election, because it believes that the effects can be disastrous for the public while a part of America, Donald Trump and Elon Musk in the lead, questions fairness of the electoral process. She is also concerned about the financial incentive to vote for one candidate or another. When we see what happened on January 6, 2021, with the assault on the Capitol, what can we imagine if we add into the equation the frustration of having lost money because of the result of the election? We can always retort that with the stratospheric costs of a campaign or the weight of lobbies, money is already central in elections.

Sports betting has also become widespread over the past six years across the country, which makes it ordinary. But beyond the risks of manipulation, can we imagine, like during a football match, interruptions during election nights to listen to the ratings of the different candidates sponsored by this or that site?