Obviously around Jean-Luc Mélenchon, we believe in it more than ever, even if no poll validates this scenario three weeks before the first round. “The polls underestimate us”replies a deputy.
The strategists of La France Insoumise are particularly interested in two voter profiles. Those who intend to abstain – a third in our latest Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey. And those who are not yet 100% sure of their choice, those who are still hesitating, including within the Marine Le Pen electorate. “We are in a period where people are in great uncertainty”explains a rebel, convinced that “voters can still switch from the confines of the far right to a Mélenchon vote on more social issues“. Precious reserves of votes as April 10 approaches…
>> Presidential 2022: discover the evolution of voting intentions in the first round, in our daily barometer
“If we are side by side with Marine Le Pen, says the same electedthese people will come back to us.” And the rebels are not the only ones to believe in this hypothesis.
At Emmanuel Macron, we also watch out of the corner of the eye what is happening around Jean-Luc Mélenchon. His possible qualification for the second round? Not excluded at the HQ of the president-candidate, but not the most probable hypothesis at this stage. “He has to siphon off Yannick Jadot and Anne Hidalgo, whose reservoirs are already low, details a macronistand that in parallel Marine Le Pen drops at the end of the race.” But it is dynamic.
“But in three weeks, the lines can still move“, warns the same. Especially since the day of the vote reserves, in itself, its share of surprises: with a stronger abstention than expected, for example.
“The less it votes, the more Mélenchon has his chances”, slips a member of the Macron campaign, taking the example of the regional elections last June, when the electorate of the National Rally had shunned the ballot box. In the outgoing president, it is considered that participation will be the justice of the peace, for second place.