The return to a balanced budget will be postponed until 2030, ministries other than those of Health and Education will be subject to a very tight regime, and François Legault knows that he will probably no longer be able to give gifts to the Quebecois.
The next budget and the subsequent ones of the second CAQ mandate will no longer have a candy flavor.
François Legault will not be able to use his favorite weapon of mass seduction.
Since the 2018 election, he has been able to distribute at a regular pace measures to reduce the tax burden on Quebecers.
Everything has been there, from the reduction in school taxes to the increase in the family allowance, including the $2,000 tax credit for seniors and other one-off checks and tax cuts.
All this allowed the CAQ leader to ride a tsunami of support and win 90 seats in 2022.
Those days are over.
In pharmacies, we know that from now on we will have to convince Quebecers by offering good government.
It’s less sexy.
Big deficit
In the middle of Sunday, flanked by the president of the Treasury Board and the Minister of Education, François Legault prepared people’s minds: Eric Girard’s next budget will be “largely in deficit”.
He thus diverted the objective of the exercise, which should have been to reveal the gains won during the painful negotiations in the fall to improve the situation in schools.
There were some, but they were obscured by the PM’s dark message.
Sonia LeBel is starting to get used to receiving kicks in the legs from her colleagues.
A figure in the federalist wing of the CAQ, she will at least leave her mandate with blue shins.
Let’s move on.
Billions to find
The Minister of Finance had planned an addition of $4.6 billion to the payroll of state employees.
After having dynamited its popularity rating with controversies, the CAQ found itself without a balance of power and concluded the agreements by throwing away 7 billion more.
Which will have to be found within five years.
We admit to the government that we never thought it would come to this.
In the red after the pandemic, Girard was banking on a deficit of 4 billion for the current year, with a gradual reduction of a billion per year to reach zero deficit in 2027-2028.
According to our information, the target will be pushed back to 2030.
Already, the spring 2023 budget document revealed that the increase in state spending would be less from 2024-2025. And it will be tighter than expected.
The word has been passed internally, in addition to the Ministries of Health and Education, others will have to make an effort.
François Legault insists that there will be no austerity, the increases in several portfolios will nevertheless be minimal.
He has no other options.
The CAQ refuses to further sacrifice payments to the Generations Fund, part of which is dedicated to the recent tax cut.
There is also no question of increasing the tax burden on citizens.
In this context of dry bread, we understand François Legault to bark loudly for Ottawa to assume the bill for asylum seekers.
Last Sunday, he insisted: the increases granted to teachers and other union members will have financial consequences.
“We made this choice for the good of the nation,” said the CAQ leader.
You could tell it hurt his heart.
He had to think about his evaporated margin, which would have made it possible to win over the electorate before 2026.