“One and the other are held by the goatee”, said this Sunday on franceinfo Philippe Chalmin, professor of economic history at Paris Dauphine University, specialist in raw materials and energy, while the conflict in Ukraine threatens imports of Russian gas to the European Union. According to him, “the Russians will be able to hold out for a while”while “the stocks of natural gas that we hold are historically low”. “In reality, gas, we can always find it, we can always buy it, the only problem is that we will have to pay for it”he summarizes.
How does a conflict in Ukraine threaten gas imports?
Philippe Chalmin: Roughly, today, Western Europe depends 40% for its supplies on Russia. The other major suppliers are Norway, Algeria, and then imports of liquefied natural gas which may come from Qatar, Australia and the United States. As soon as we have a real conflict, when we say to the Russians “we no longer buy your gas” or what the Russians would tell us “we no longer want to sell you our gas”we will have a supply problem because the stocks of natural gas that we hold are historically low and therefore we will have to find other supplies, that is obvious.
The Russians also have no real interest in cutting the valves since they massively export gas?
Yes, one and the other are held by the goatee. But the Russians will be able to hold out for a while: they have outlets on the side of China. In this game of arm wrestling, the Russians have not hesitated until now to use the weapon of gas. But, in reality, gas, we can always find it, we can always buy it. We currently have liquefied natural gas import capacity. The only problem that must be remembered is that we will have to pay for it and that if we ever have a military conflict over Ukraine, we will have a surge in gas prices, that’s obvious.
Whether in Europe or Asia, you should know that, already today, gas is worth almost twice as much as oil. We have had periods of very strong tensions on the gas market in recent weeks which were directly correlated to the word of Vladimir Putin. So gas, we will have some, but we will have to go to the cash register and it will be very expensive.
“In the most total disaster scenario, if not more than one cubic meter of Russian gas crosses the border, there could be somewhat tight supply situations.”
Philippe Chalminat franceinfo
Will Europe manage to speak with one voice, knowing that we do not all depend on Russian gas in the same way?
Indeed, France is much quieter. Gas is used for heating but it is also used to produce electricity. We have a nuclear mattress but Germany has none. We can clearly see, currently, in the German management of the Ukrainian crisis, all the ambiguities. The Minister of Foreign Affairs, who is green, is opposed to all forms of fossil fuels, including gas. She is extremely tough on Russia, threatening that the North Stream 2 gas pipeline will never open. Conversely, Olaf Scholz [le chancelier allemand] is almost silent in this case. It is also true that Eastern Europe, the closest to Russia, is the most dependent.
If the United States is so interested in it, is it obviously that they have interests in this file?
It is true that it is interesting to see the state of subordination in which Europe finds itself vis-à-vis the United States. It is the United States which is concerned about the gas supply to Europe and which is going to negotiate with Qatar, as if Europe, at the limit, did not exist. There could be cargoes, LNG carriers, coming from Qatar coming from Australia, from the United States arriving in European ports. Simply, it will have a price.