72 Crucial Hours opens in Mariupol, Ukraine. Russia promises a ceasefire to allow the evacuation of hundreds of civilians, still trapped in the undergrounds of the Azovstal factory. Moscow has intensified its offensive on the Donbass for two weeks, after the failure of the capture of the capital. However, the situation seems to be slipping on this eastern front.
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Launched on April 18, the Kremlin’s offensive in this area, presented as the second phase of the conflict, after the failures in kyiv and the north of the country in February-March, has done some damage, but hardly seems to be progressing. Worse: the Russian losses accumulate, in particular in materials. At the moment, the territorial gains of the Russian army are, so to speak, insignificant. We can thus count a few tens of square kilometers of open countryside, two hamlets and an urban battle engaged in the small town of Popasna.
It must be said that opposite, the Ukrainian resistance is fierce. The Ukrainians effectively consolidated their defense lines, mining the entire area and burying themselves in consolidated bunkers. It is a real war of attrition with the artillery – the American howitzers are arriving on the spot -, but also thanks to the Turkish combat drones which are causing misfortune in the Russian ranks.
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If we count for example the only number of heavy tanks lost by Russia, since April 18, we already arrive at more than fifty. And these are only verifiable losses, counted by the Oryx blog, visual sources in support. However, fifty heavy tanks is enormous: it represents nearly 10% of the vehicles of this type engaged in the Donbass, if we refer to a Western estimate.
#UkraineWar: Overview of newly added Russian equipment losses for 02/5/2022.
Full list: https://t.co/ls08qQC18r pic.twitter.com/jHiK6mw5S8
— Oryx (@oryxspioenkop) May 4, 2022
Contained in the Donbass, the Russians are being pushed back elsewhere. They have thus been pushed back 40 km east of Kharkiv – Ukraine’s second city – by a particularly effective Ukrainian counter-offensive over the past two days.