The conquest of this city would allow Russian forces to penetrate the eastern region of Donbass and get closer to Kramatorsk, an important railway and logistics hub for the Ukrainian army.
Will the Ukrainian flag fly for a long time on Chassiv Yar? The situation around this small town in eastern Ukraine is “difficult and tense”, recognized the army, Sunday April 7. Already devastated by more than two years of fighting, the locality, which now has 770 inhabitants (compared to 13,000 before the war), finds itself “under constant fire” Russian forces for several weeks.
While the front remained relatively stable last year, Moscow took advantage of the weakening of kyiv, which lacked men and ammunition, to gain ground. “If before there were times when there was silence in the city, now there is no more (…) The whole city is burning,” Serguiï Tchaous, head of the local military administration, described to AFP. In the Donbass region, Chassiv Yar is now at the heart of the Russian offensive. A strategic battle is being played out there, both for kyiv and for Moscow.
A door to control of Donbass
Chassiv Iar “is not a fundamental locality, but there is important political communication that is made there” by the Russians, explains Thibault Fouillet, scientific director at the Institute for Strategy and Defense Studies (IESD). After conquering Bakhmout, nearby, in May 2023, then Avdiivka last February, at the gates of Donetsk, “Russia is pursuingwe aim to capture all of Donbass”, analysis Stéphane Audrand, international risk consultant and military specialist.
Chassiv Iar indeed constitutes one of the last “defensive locks” Ukrainian forces, before the town of Kramatorsk, further west. This city had 150,000 inhabitants before the war and represents an important logistical node for the Ukrainian army. Chassiv Iar is also a gateway to Sloviansk and Kostiantyniv.
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But these cities are linked together by key roads “for the logistical maneuvers of the Ukrainian army”, recalls Stéphane Audrand. Notably “in the off-seasons”because these are roads covered with asphalt, which allow military vehicles to pass more easily than on the muddy soils specific to Ukraine during the winter.
“The capture of Chassiv Yar would force a Ukrainian withdrawal and cause quite serious logistical tension for kyiv.”
Stéphane Audrand, military specialistat franceinfo
“If the Russians managed to take Chassiv Iar, then Kramatorsk, they could claim almost complete control of the oblast from Donetsk”, one of the regions annexed by Vladimir Putin in 2022, but for which kyiv is still fighting, observes Thibault Fouillet. “The symbolic and political dimension would be very important”. Especially since the pro-Russian separatists briefly seized Kramatorsk and Sloviansk during the first clashes with kyiv in 2014, before being pushed back by the Ukrainians.
Unfavorable terrain for the Russians
Despite Russian pressure, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, Oleksandr Syrsky, maintained on April 6 that Chasiv Yar remains “under control” and that all “enemy attempts to break through” forehead “have failed”. The Russians are indeed faced with several difficulties. First, because Tchassiv Iar is located at around 200 meters above sea level. And, as in any war, “this height complicates the infantry assaultt facilitates defensive shots. This slows down Russian progress.explains Thibault Fouillet. “From the moment we are at the top, we see further, and we can shoot further, complete Stéphane Audrand. If you are at the bottom of a hill, the view is blocked. Firing from a height with a cannon or mortar will always carry further.”
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Chassiv Iar is also crossed by a canal. However, crossing a watercourse is always delicate and tactical. Russian forces must find a way to cross it – using a mobile bridge for example – and secure this passage. “The Russian army must protect its units in front of the canal while building the bridge, protect its soldiers during the crossing, then on the other side of the bridge”, illustrates Thibault Fouillet. In May 2022, a Russian battalion attempted to cross the Donets River in Donbass, but Ukrainian artillery anticipated this crossing and decimated it. In a few hours, some 500 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded and more than 80 vehicles destroyed, recalls The Parisian.
“The passage of the Chassiv Iar canal represents an operational obstacle for the Russians and slows down their advance.”
Thibault Fouillet, researcher at the Institute of Strategy and Defense Studiesat franceinfo
Another obstacle for the Russians: the construction by the Ukrainians of a fortified line to slow down their advance towards Kramatorsk. “She is built along the front line – although the exact position remains unknown. It is made up of trenches, anti-vehicle ditches to cut off passages.describe Thibault Fouillet. Since the failure of its counter-offensive last summer, kyiv has begun digging trenches and building defensive lines to slow down the Russians and prevent a breakthrough. These fortifications are a network of trenches, anti-tank ditches and rows of pyramidal concrete blocks called “dragon’s teeth”, to slow down the armored vehicles mounting the assault. In Chassiv Yar, the longer the Russian army takes to cross the canal, the more the Ukrainian army can solidify this line of defense. “The enemy of the Russians right now is time”underlines Thibault Fouillet.
Drones to counter the war of attrition
Despite the geographical obstacles of Chassiv Yar, the Russians nevertheless have the initiative on the front. Faced with the Ukrainian army’s lack of ammunition, Moscow is continuing its strategy of attrition. On the road which connects Tchassiv Iar to Bakhmout, she “uses a lot of men, a lot of ammunition”, a Ukrainian soldier from the 5th assault brigade told AFP. “The Russians are trying to carry out assault actions both directly on the settlements of Bogdanivka and Ivanivské, which surround Chasiv Yar. They are also trying to carry out offensive actions between these settlements”added Oleg Kalashnikov, spokesperson for a brigade engaged in the fighting, to AFP.
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The logic is the same as that deployed in Avdiivka, Bakhmout or Kherson. After more than two years of war, “the Russian army is not in the process of making a big breakthrough”, explains Stéphane Audrand. “It will shell, bludgeon the front line with aviation, artillery, then their infantry will attack the city,” he illustrates. The objective is to wear out the Ukrainian army, and to “biting away little by little at Ukrainian territory”. In front,“L“The Ukrainians still have a few mechanized brigades, an armored brigade and a territorial brigade, but nothing to engage in.” continues the specialist.
“Ukraine does not have enough mobility to regain the initiative. This is why its army remains on the defensive.”
Stéphane Audrand, military specialistat franceinfo
In Chassiv Yar, Ukrainian forces are resisting in part thanks to drones. The use of these inexpensive and easy-to-manufacture weapons allows “to wear out at least the Russian mechanized forces and part of their infantry”, describes Stéphane Audrand. But Moscow uses them too. “A lot of drones are now in action”day and night, Serguii, a Ukrainian soldier from the fifth assault brigade, told AFP. “The drone keeps flying until it kills you or it falls next to you to hurt you until another one comes.”describes Egor, another Ukrainian fighter. “This is the first conflict where we see a substitution on such a scale of artillery and anti-tank missiles by drones,” observes Stéphane Audrand.
A feared Russian summer offensive
How long can this balance of power last? “The Russians can continue like this until the summer. But their strategy is costly in terms of men and equipment”, believes Stéphane Audrand. Summer will be a decisive season since it is the most favorable period for the use of armored vehicles, which make it possible to carry out offensives on the battlefield. But even if the Russians have the advantage, “their progress remains slow”shade Thibault Fouillet.
“The Russians took more than five months to take Avdiivka. A lot of things can happen during this time: the delivery of weapons to Ukraine, the existence of other places of pressure on the front…”
Thibault Fouillet, researcher at the Institute of Strategy and Defense Studiesat franceinfo
At the end of March, the commander of the Ukrainian ground forces estimated “possible” a Russian summer offensive involving 100,000 men. “It won’t necessarily be an offensive. Perhaps they will use it to replenish their units which are losing their combat capabilities”has declared General Oleksandre Pavliouk, before warning: “Only a slowdown in their actions will allow us to take the initiative.”