Will China take advantage of the war in Ukraine to lead the invasion of Taiwan in turn? In the capital, Taipei, this hypothesis does not convince… for the moment.
Two ogres facing two small countries, two similar horizons? Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying quickly dismissed the comparison last week: “Taiwan is not Ukraine,” she replied. Before clarifying his thoughts: “Taiwan has always been an inalienable part of Chinese territory. A way of warning the rest of the world: Beijing reserves the right to intervene, and will not consider this as an aggression.
China has also refrained from condemning Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. For her part, the Taiwanese president, Tsai Ing-wen, denounced Russia and took the opportunity to reassure her fellow citizens: “Our army is committed to defending our homeland and is constantly improving its ability to do so. Our foreign partners contribute to the security of our region, which gives us strong confidence in Taiwan’s security. »
On the ground, we quickly observed movement: on Saturday February 26, an American warship crossed the Taiwan Strait (which separates the archipelago from China). Beijing immediately referred to a “provocation”, Washington replied that it was a “routine” trip. On Tuesday, a delegation of former senior US defense officials arrived in Taipei. For Ying Yu Lin, an assistant professor at National Sun Yat-sen University and a specialist in Taiwanese defense, the message sent is clear: “The United States does not want any shots in the Indo-Pacific zone. »
Ukrainian lessons
In the Taiwanese sky, Chinese military planes continue to invite themselves, but it has become a habit as these intrusions are numerous – nearly 1,000 in 2021. No tension is, however, palpable in the streets of Taipei. This is how we can sum up the attitude of the Taiwanese towards their noisy neighbour: worry yes, panic no.
“I’m cautiously optimistic,” says Wen-Ti Sung, senior lecturer in Taiwanese studies at the Australian National University. “The Ukrainian crisis shows that even for a nuclear power like Russia, it is very difficult to achieve quick and painless success. If China was hoping to do the same in Taiwan, it will certainly pause to think about it. »
Another reason for relief: facing Moscow, Westerners have shown a union that we no longer knew about them, and their heavy economic sanctions will isolate Russia. “If Beijing should learn a lesson from this, it is that it will have to build a much better coalition on the diplomatic level in order to reduce the impact of such sanctions”, observes Mr. Sung. “Xi Jinping intends to stay in power and therefore wants to avoid any economic shock before the next National Congress of the Communist Party, scheduled for this fall,” added Mr. Lin.
The Ukrainian crisis shows that even for a nuclear power like Russia, it is very difficult to achieve quick and painless success. If China was hoping to do the same in Taiwan, it will certainly pause to think about it.
Information, the sinews of war
If a potential fight seems unequal, Taiwan does not go away defeated. The main island, which is steeply mountainous, would not be easy to capture. Its troops are armed and trained by the United States. And the small archipelago has acquired colossal importance in the contemporary world: it produces 70% of the planet’s semiconductors, which are found in both cell phones and cars. Symbolically, it is the only Chinese-speaking liberal democracy, and therefore a powerful counter-model to Xi Jinping’s regime.
The United States therefore does not want to see Taiwan fall into the clutches of Beijing, but it is difficult to say that they would intervene militarily in the event of an attack from the Middle Kingdom, since they have always cultivated the ” strategic ambiguity” in this case. Ying Yu Lin thinks that Washington’s army could act in support of its Taiwanese equivalent, in particular by sharing information on enemy positions – which would be all the easier if the Asian force uses American armaments.
An open war, however, remains an option of last resort, thinks the expert, as many other games of influence take place far from the military terrain: for several years, Beijing has been trying to flood Taiwan with disinformation, whether through social networks or media whose owners have strong economic ties with mainland China. Main target: President Tsai Ing-wen, hostile to any unification.
However, the slope will be difficult to climb, as the identity of the islanders is firming up: according to the latest polls, 62% consider themselves solely as Taiwanese, against 3% solely as Chinese. And 72.5% say they are ready to fight for the motherland if China resorts to force. We see it in Ukraine: such a national feeling can cause great concern to an invader…