in Russia, how the opponents of the war in Ukraine manage to express themselves despite the stranglehold of the authorities

Is this movement the expression of a massively shared anger or a marginal phenomenon? Hard to say. Still, many Russians are speaking out to express their opposition to the war, behind the slogan #нетвойне (“No War”). In the large urban centers of Moscow and Saint Petersburg in particular, some do not hesitate to defy the authorities’ ban and to gather in the streets. These manifestations reflect a “fairly unprecedented movement because it concerns a wide spectrum of individuals”, notes Julien Nocetti, associate researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). Even if the gatherings are still modest in size.

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Tuesday March 1, nearly 6,500 people had been arrested in 103 cities of the country, according to the count of the NGO OVD-info *. Participants risk fines ranging from 2,000 to 300,000 rubles (175 to 25,000 euros) and a prison sentence of up to 30 days. On the first day of the offensive, February 24, the authorities had already threatened future participants in these demonstrations with prosecution. The police now lock any gathering places, in order to anticipate the gatherings planned for the evening. The protests, even individual ones, are interrupted after a handful of minutes and the crowded police vans leave every evening for the police station.

The artist and activist Artem Loskutov, for his part, relayed some tags seen in the streets of Moscow: “War is a fucking shame!”, “No to war – It is useless, neither for you nor for me…” But the physical expression, visible to all, of the protest is still limited in the cities of Russia.

Another mode of expression: petitions. Over 20,000 IT employees*, in particular, have already signed an open letter calling for an end to the military operation. “The current situation will affect normal people in Ukraine and Russia” and not the elites, explained one of the signatories to the washington post (in English), with reference to the penalties incurred. Petitions have also been signed by 4,750 scientists and scientific journalists*, thousands of doctors*, members of the Orthodox clergy*, 2,000 lawyers* and 10,000 actors from the world of culture*… The Meduza site lists some of them forty*. Fifteen Russian filmmakers, including Alex Andrei Zviaguintsev, denounced the offensive in a long video broadcast by the YouTube program “Radio Dolin”*.

“To our suffering is added shame”wrote Dmitry Muratov, winner of the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize and editor of the opposition newspaper Novaya Gazeta. His letter was signed by a hundred city councillors. Some 1,500 teachers* have also signed an appeal for peace – and are at serious risk of losing their jobs. “Russian officials have been Vladimir Putin’s electoral base for two decades, so it’s very symbolic”notes Julien Nocetti, associate researcher at the French Institute of International Relations. “It remains to be seen the impact over time, but it is already striking that these people are revolting.”

“The movement seems quite new. Over the last decade, I don’t see an equivalent.”

Julien Nocetti, associate researcher at the French Institute of International Relations

at franceinfo

“This mobilization is quite surprising because it concerns personalities from various backgrounds who speak at their own risk and peril”, continues Julien Nocetti. Even if the tension is palpable, the criticisms are still veiled in the business world, with the exception of the remarkable speeches of businessmen Oleg Tinkov, Oleg Deripaska and Mikhail Fridman (native of Lviv, Ukraine). “We will have to see how he will anchor himself or not in Russian society, and if in return the Russian authorities will take countermeasures to curb these speeches”however, continues Julien Nocetti.

The State Duma, in any case, is drawing up a bill providing for up to fifteen years in prison for the authors of “false” information on the actions of the Russian army. The media control agency, Roskomnadzor, has dozens of articles and sites blocked, according to the list of the NGO RosKomSvoboda*. At issue, in particular, is the fact of mentioning a “war” in Ukraine rather than a “special military operation” of “maintain the peace”as claimed by the Kremlin.

The agency recalls that “only official Russian sources have current and reliable information” and brandishes the threat of a blockage and a huge fine for those who do not trust it. The Prosecutor General’s office, moreover, asked on Tuesday to block access to the Dojd channel, according to this media, as well as the Echo radio station in Moscow – both critical of the Kremlin’s choices.

Social networks – and in particular Instagram, very popular in Russia – are however resisting injunctions with many influencers, like bloggers Yuri Doud (5 million subscribers) and Nastya Ivleeva (19 million subscribers). Like many other users, Maxime Galkine (9 million) and Ksenia Sobtchak (9 million) shared a black screen along with a message – “Ithe war has begun”writes the latter. “Not on our lands, yes. With our people, yes.” Black screen also for host Ivan Ourgant, on Instagram then on television – his daily show on Channel One (Pervi Kanal) was canceled two days later.

It is on YouTube, Telegram, Tik Tok and Instagram that speech is released. “For eight years, we have been accustomed to speaking of a Russia of television – rather of workers, employees and retirees – and of a younger Russia of the Internet.explains Julien Nocetti. These two Russias coexist but do not have the same way of life and the same way of consuming information. Open conflict could further widen this generation gap. And if the pacifist mobilization “is still at an embryonic stage, it could go upmarket, especially if the authorities implement their Russian internet” nationally, underlines Julien Nocetti, referring to possible future blockages.

“This open conflict is a favorable moment for the Kremlin to set up this project. We must therefore follow these informational issues carefully”, continues Julien Nocetti. In the meantime, these positions taken by bloggers are giving rise to virulent reactions from supporters of the Russian president. Ekaterina Mizulina, daughter of a parliamentarian and head of the “League for a Safe Internet”, notably demanded that Yuri Doud be added to the list of foreign agents. She also circulated an alleged screenshot of an anonymous man offering 50,000 rubles to influencers calling on their followers to protest.

It remains to be seen whether this expression is representative of Russian opinion, which is so difficult to fathom. Some 68% of Russians polled by the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM) support “a military operation in Ukraine“, according to results published Monday, against 22% unfavorable opinions and 10% undecided. “Yes, 22% is a lotcomments the institute on its Telegram channel, almost surprised, and we should all work together to explain to them that Moscow had no other choice.”. Arnaud Dubien, director of the Franco-Russian Observatory, was moved in the opposite direction, during a point at the CCI (Chamber of Commerce and Industry) France Russia, emphasizing in particular the wording of the question, which keep the word “war”. “For a majority, the clear awareness of what is happening is not yet there”he further notes, and the explosion of a missile on the regional administration in Kharkiv, as well as Russian losses, could further change this trend.

An evolution that is difficult to predict

Before the start of the conflict, the director of the Levada Center, Lev Goudkov, estimated on France Inter that he “there were no negative anti-Ukrainian attitudes before Vladimir Putin came to power or in the early years of his presidency.” From “waves of animosity have been recorded with Kremlin propaganda”he said, “in reaction to the events of Maidan“, in 2014. But “the deterioration of the standard of living and the cuts in social policy” have reduced these inclinations towards the neighbor, according to the sociologist. For Julien Nocetti, other more cultural reasons come into play in the representations of an intervention.

“You have two-thirds of Russian families who have more or less old ties with Ukraine, which explains the more sentimental dimension. We are not talking about Afghanistan or Syria, but of a neighbor who shares largely the same memory.”

Julien Nocetti, associate researcher at the French Institute of International Relations

at franceinfo

The question of sanctions could also be added to this aspect, with a possible loss of purchasing power, accompanied by very high inflation. What trigger large-scale mobilizations? “It is a country which is already experiencing very significant economic and social misery, it would take a huge shock for the Russians to consider the situation unacceptable”nuance Anna Colin Lebedev, specialist in post-Soviet societies interviewed by The Obs. Distancing herself from the very existence of a “Russian opinion”, in the Western sense, she believes that the inhabitants will undoubtedly “adopt strategies of escape or flight, rather than contestation”.

* All links marked with an asterisk lead to content in Russian.