In Portugal, the shadow of Chega

Small fish will become big. This seemingly innocuous phrase could well apply to the Chega party, which is preparing to shake up the established order in Portugal with its ultraconservative and anti-immigrant message.

Chega (Enough, in Portuguese) is credited with 15 to 20% of the votes in Sunday’s legislative elections, or around 40 deputies out of 230. A spectacular growth, considering that the far-right formation, created barely five years ago , had only collected one seat in 2019 and a dozen in 2022.

This score would be insufficient to take power. But André Ventura’s party could, on the other hand, play the “kingmakers”, by supporting the right-wing bloc led by the Social Democratic Party (PSD), which took the lead with 35% of the voting intentions. The leader of the PSD, Luís Montenegro, officially rejected this scenario. But some analysts say it remains possible, which would result in a sharp shift to the right for Portugal after eight years of socialist (PS) government interrupted by a corruption scandal.

“Economically, it wouldn’t change anything. But there would be big changes in the content of school programs, a speech rather favorable to the traditional family, a tougher policy on crimes and immigration,” underlines political scientist António Costa Pinto, from the Institute of Social Sciences. from the University of Lisbon.

European populism

It is ironic that these elections come just a month before the 50^e anniversary of the “carnation revolution” which led to the fall of the fascist regime of António Salazar, April 25, 1974.

Many believed that this historic event had immunized the country against the virus of the far right. But the vaccine has apparently lost its effect. For many Portuguese, Chega’s speech and the charisma of his leader are a breath of fresh air in the hitherto predictable landscape of Portuguese politics.

A lawyer by training and former TV soccer commentator, André Ventura, 41, is part of the line of populist leaders who are gaining ground in Europe.

A slayer of the political-economic elites, he presents himself as an alternative to the two traditional parties (PS and PSD) who have shared power since the end of the 1970s, promising to “clean up” a political class that he accused of being corrupt.

His message particularly resonates as “scandals” have been occurring in government for several years. The latest, a case of influence peddling around the lithium industry, forced socialist Prime Minister António Costa to lay down his arms in November and call early elections, despite a positive record marked by sanitation. public finances and fairly good economic health.

” They [Chega] are taking advantage of the economic situation,” sums up António Costa Pinto quite simply.

The problem with immigration

Chega’s program is both flexible and rigid.

A self-confessed neoliberal, André Ventura promises lower taxes and wage increases. Very right-wing in terms of security, he advocates life imprisonment (non-existent in Portugal) and does not exclude chemical castration for pedophiles and serial rapists.

A convinced nationalist, he wants to revive the “true Portugal”, that of the “good Portuguese”, that is to say “native”, by controlling immigration.

Like his friend Marine Le Pen, who recently visited him, he made insecurity a central issue of his campaign, readily associating the problems of disorder and crime with the question of foreigners.

This openly xenophobic discourse exacerbates the fears of part of the population, while immigration to Portugal is becoming more and more visible, no longer limited to Brazilians and Africans from Portuguese-speaking Africa. But “it has a little less impact than elsewhere in Europe, because there are still relatively few foreigners in the country”, however, nuance Yves Léonard, member of the Sciences Po History Center and specialist in the history of Portugal . According to the Migration Observatory in Portugal, immigrants represent 7% of the population, estimated at 10 million.

For some, Chega’s announced good score would also be attributable to its ability to reach a younger electorate. The party appears to have taken advantage of the weaknesses of its competitors on social media, including TikTok and Facebook, where Ventura has more than 135,000 followers, a solid base established during his years as a sports commentator.

His charisma and virulent, even divisive language, inspired by the tradition of tascas (taverns) of yesteryear, would also appeal to a more popular electorate, who feels neglected by Lisbon, particularly in the more rural hinterland. Known story…

Uncertainty and tension

Will this be enough to change the political situation?

The abstention rate, particularly among the youngest, could slow down Chega’s momentum. Despite its modern image and its growing links with the business world, the party also remains associated with a reactionary current which brings back bad memories to the Portuguese, which explains why Ventura, despite his nostalgic speech, avoids identifying too much with the Salazarism of yesteryear. “The problem with Salazar is that he is associated with poverty and Portugal as a backward country,” emphasizes António Costa Pinto. So it doesn’t work much. »

In any case, uncertainty reigns. And that is the whole point of these “high tension” elections, which could have a real impact on the major national orientations, believes Yves Léonard.

“It’s incredible to imagine that this country, which had a stable situation a few months ago, suddenly finds itself in a situation with a lot of question marks,” concludes the expert. It would still be very strange if the right called on Chega to govern in a more stable way. We must hope that this 50^e anniversary of the revolution will weigh in a positive sense…”