In Poland, the legislative elections on October 15 promise to be very close. 29 million Poles are called to the polls. The election notably sees PiS, the populist-nationalist party in power for eight years, and the centrist, pro-European opposition of Donald Tusk.
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The legislative elections are being held on Sunday October 15 in a deeply divided Poland, and if we are to believe the polls there is little more than one certainty: the victory of PiS, Law and Justice, the ruling party of Jaroslaw Kaczynski . He is credited with 37% of voting intentions and scored points with the increase in salaries, family allowances and pensions; and with the recently and very timely discounts granted on the price of gasoline.
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But alone, the populist-nationalist party will probably not have a majority and it will have to form an alliance, which seems complicated, due to a lack of partners. Much more in any case than for the opposition, the Civic Coalition led by former Prime Minister Donald Tusk. 30% of voting intentions according to the latest polls but able to build a coalition with two other parties, the Third Way and the New Left, each with around 10% of the vote.
At the center of the campaign: security, inflation, abortion… and the EU
On the one hand, Jaroslaw Kaczynski for the ruling Law and Justice party focused on national security and sovereignty. He wants more independence for his country within the European Union and promises “a secure future for all Poles”. His supporters see him as a strong leader, but his opponents accuse him of dividing Poles and attacking women’s rights.
On the other hand, Donald Tusk, back after having chaired the European Council until 2019, denounces the “fiascos” of power: very high inflation and the tightening of the law on abortion in particular. Its supporters are easily recognizable with their little white and red hearts stuck on their chests. At the beginning of October, the movement brought together a million people in Warsaw, the largest demonstration in history in the capital.
Lots of misinformation
For the ruling party, Donald Tusk embodies “absolute evil”. He is held responsible for all of Poland’s difficulties, unemployment, inflation, immigration… He is the favorite target of the PiS, which attacks him in very violent campaign spots which mix images of migrants, burning cars and attacks against women. During one of his last speeches, the head of government Mateusz Morawiecki mentioned the name of Donald Tusk or his party around forty times. PiS leaders criticize him for representing not the interests of Poles but those of Brussels or Berlin. According to the government, his return to power would be “a catastrophe.”