With legislative elections that promise to be historic, the atmosphere in Paris is, all in all, quite normal for the moment. The leap into the unknown that awaits France did not dissuade Parisians from flocking en masse to the terraces on Friday evening to celebrate the victory of the Blues against the Portuguese soccer team. This fraternal and good-natured atmosphere contrasts with the heated debates of the last few days in the various media, where people readily call each other anti-Semites, racists, or even fascists.
But make no mistake: the legislative elections are still on everyone’s minds. There is not a café, restaurant or bar where you don’t hear politics being discussed at the next table. The fact that the far right is on the verge of power is worrying in Paris, one of the cities where the vote for the National Rally remains the most marginal. The RN only managed to qualify for the second round in one of the 18 constituencies in the capital.
“Paris is a city of immigrants. For now, it’s calm. But all it takes is a spark for the fire to catch. If the RN wins tomorrow, it could be a spark,” says Yvan Cotten-Sapa, a young student encountered on Place de la République.
The huge monument erected in the center of the place was tagged to its full height with slogans hostile to the National Rally. Two huge Algerian and Palestinian flags flutter side by side. The scene is impressive. Several foreign television channels trained their cameras on it. On Saturday morning, journalists from Greece, Turkey and Mexico could be seen there: all fascinated by the rise of the extreme right in the “country of human rights.”
In fact, it was quite calm on Saturday around noon at the Place de la République, where a large demonstration against the RN was held earlier this week. It was one of the only ones; the period between the two rounds was not marked by a wave of protests in the streets, as some had feared. But the unveiling of the results of the second round could change the situation.
Risks of overflows
The Interior Ministry will deploy 30,000 law enforcement officers across France on Sunday to prevent disturbances. Some shops in Paris are also preparing for the worst. They will empty their stocks and barricade their windows on Sunday evening, for fear that the situation could degenerate into break-ins or looting.
The country has seen its share of gender-based violence in recent years with the Yellow Vest crisis, then last summer’s riots following the death of 17-year-old Nahel during a police check. “The context is different this time. But I think that if the RN wins, there could be uprisings,” fears Christophe, who runs a clothing store on the Avenue des Champs-Élysées.
The manager of another luxury brand, who also declined to be identified so as not to harm her company, is not overly concerned about the unrest that could occur Sunday. She is more concerned about the impact that the Olympic Games, which are scheduled to open on July 26, will have on her business.
“There are fewer people in Paris right now, but it’s not because of the elections, it’s because Parisians fled the city in anticipation of the Olympics. The big unknown for us is whether the Games will attract tourists or whether, on the contrary, they will have pushed foreigners to postpone their trips,” she says.
At the end of this hyperpolarized campaign, there was nothing unusual on the Champs-Élysées on Saturday morning. As usual, hordes of American and Chinese tourists gathered there on Saturday to have their pictures taken with the Arc de Triomphe. And this, despite the very gloomy weather.
No majority in sight
The temperatures have been pretty nasty this summer in Paris so far. There have been no major heatwaves, as was the case in previous years. Is this why environmental issues have been almost completely absent from these elections? After benefiting from a Greta Thunberg effect before the pandemic, the Greens now seem doomed to play second fiddle in French political life. Within the New Popular Front, they find themselves squeezed between their two coalition partners, the rebellious radical left and the socialists of the center left.
On the ground, immigration, insecurity and the economy are the issues most often raised. But since the first round, the mainstream media have focused on the subtleties of the two-round French political system. Because a whole mechanism has been operating for a week to block the candidates of the National Rally. President Macron’s camp called on its candidates who came in third place to withdraw from the second round in favor of those of the New Popular Front. The left-wing coalition also gave the indication to its candidates who came in third place who could have stayed in the second round not to do so, in order to allow the Macronists who are better positioned than them to beat the RN.
This strategy could prevent the young Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen’s protégé, from becoming prime minister. According to recent projections by polling institutes, the RN would not exceed the 289 seat mark, the magic number to obtain a majority in the National Assembly.
Without any majority party in parliament, France, which will remain presided over by Emmanuel Macron, could prove ungovernable.