After elections that failed to produce a clear majority, Pakistan is bracing for weeks of political uncertainty, with contested results in court and arduous negotiations to form a coalition government, analysts said on Monday.
The good performance of independent candidates supported by the imprisoned former prime minister Imran Khan prevented the favorite of the election, the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) of Nawaz Sharif, another former prime minister, from obtaining an absolute majority.
Imran Khan’s party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), has suffered a relentless crackdown, which has paralyzed its campaign and forced its candidates to run as independents. But they still came out on top in the legislative vote.
The cutoff of mobile telephone and Internet services on Thursday, polling day, and the slow counting of results raise suspicions of attempts to manipulate the electoral process by the military, aimed at helping the PML-N win. The PTI claims that it would otherwise have won even more seats.
“There are three potential challenges to the legitimacy of the elections: prolonged legal proceedings, protests and possible violence,” political analyst Amber Rahim Shamsi told AFP.
PTI-backed independents won 90 seats in the National Assembly. But a government can only be formed by a formally recognized party or coalition. They will therefore have to ally themselves with another party to be able to claim to be part of it.
An alliance between the PML-N and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, remains the most likely scenario.
Founded on family dynasties and traditionally rivals, the PML-N and the PPP have shared most of the power with the army for decades. However, they had already formed a coalition government after the ouster of Imran Khan from the post of prime minister in 2022.
Delicate role for the courts
“In the short term, it will be difficult for any coalition born from highly contentious elections in an emotionally charged political environment to implement the unpopular reforms that Pakistan desperately needs,” Shamsi said.
At least half a dozen small parties won a seat or two, and would be willing to welcome independents into their ranks.
They could then obtain a share of the 70 seats reserved for women and religious minorities. But this maneuver has never taken place on such a scale in the past and would certainly be challenged in court.
“The courts have a particularly delicate role to play at the moment,” emphasizes lawyer Osama Malik. “They will also have to decide whether a recount should be ordered in various constituencies. »
PTI leaders claim to have received “the mandate of the people” to form the next government.
Police fired tear gas on Sunday to disperse pro-PTI rallies, after warning that strict action would be taken against any protests.
In the United States, questioned Monday about the use by Pakistani police of a law dating from the colonial era against gatherings of at least five people, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller insisted so that “freedom of assembly is respected everywhere in the world”.
“We believe that the accusations of fraud must be thoroughly investigated,” he added, while referring to “an open election” and saying the United States “ready to work with the government once that he will be trained.”
The UN called for disputes to be resolved using “existing legal frameworks”.
Its secretary general Antonio Guterres “urges the authorities and political leaders to maintain a calm atmosphere and to reject and refrain from any form of violence,” his spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric told the press.
By-elections
Hundreds of PTI officials and supporters were arrested last year after protests in support of Imran Khan in May degenerated into violence.
The former star cricketer was unable to contest the elections after being sentenced to lengthy prison terms for treason, corruption and un-Islamic marriage just before the vote.
He accused the army of having orchestrated his fall in 2022 and of being at the origin of his legal troubles, to prevent him from returning to power.
By-elections will also have to be held in different constituencies.
A particularity of the Pakistani electoral system is that it is in fact possible for a candidate to run in various constituencies. If he wins in several, he must choose which one he wishes to represent, and partials take place in the other(s).
Whatever its composition, the future coalition will face a multitude of serious challenges, economic and security in particular.
“No government will have the luxury of time and political security after these elections,” stressed Ms. Shamsi.