On the military base in Timbuktu (Mali) on laterite soil, in front of an audience of soldiers and officers, the tricolor was taken down on Tuesday, December 14 to make way for the Malian flag. The 150 French soldiers packed their bags as part of the reorganization of Operation Barkhane. After Kidal and Tessalit a few weeks ago, this withdrawal is a strong symbol: it is in Timbuktu, holy city of Islam listed as a UNESCO World Heritage Site, that the former French President François Hollande launched with great fanfare. French intervention against the jihadists. That was almost nine years ago, in February 2013.
Since then, the operation has stalled. After several months of tracking jihadists in the mountains, Operation Serval becomes Operation Barkahne and its mandate extends to neighboring countries. But the Sahel is immense and impossible to pacify. The French army is increasingly perceived as an ineffective occupation army as jihadist groups gain influence and gradually settle into the background, in a form of cohabitation with the inhabitants. Their fighters often come from the same communities. Today, they also manage the daily life: around Timbuktu, for a case of theft or conflict, we prefer to go see the Muslim judge of the emirate rather than the state justice.
According to the UN, the number of attacks against civilians has never been lower since 2015, when Bamako and northern rebel groups signed peace agreements. Nomadic refugees who had fled to Mauritania and Algeria have returned. Schools and churches have been able to reopen under certain conditions. However, the situation remains fragile: no Westerner can go to this area without a military escort.
The French soldiers left Timbuktu but not completely Mali: rather we entered a phase of reorganization. In 2023, there will be only 3,000 French people in the Sahel against 5,000 in recent weeks. The army will redeploy to the South and change tactics. Rather than having bases all over the place, which is logistically very heavy and which also makes soldiers more vulnerable to attacks, there will be fewer conventional personnel but more intelligence activities, with drones and planes. Special forces will integrate with Tabuka, the European force supposed to take over.
But the contacts of the military in power in Bamako with the Russian paramilitary company Wagner worried France and its allies. There was no question for Paris of conducting joint field operations with Russian auxiliaries, often accused of abuses. The European Union has just sanctioned Wagner officials by depriving them of visas. Emmanuel Macron will have the opportunity to talk about it with the head of the junta, Colonel Assimi Goïta, whom he will meet on Monday, December 20 in Bamako before celebrating Christmas with the French troops stationed at Gao, the main French base in the Sahel which remains open.