On October 20, 2011, after weeks of flight, Muammar Kadhafi, the former Libyan “guide”, was captured and then killed near Sirte, his region of origin. The event ends the episode of the Arab Spring which turned into armed conflict in the country, leading to the intervention of Western countries. The death of Muammar Gaddafi was at the time experienced as a “release”, according to the expression of the National Council of the Transition (CNT), the political organ of the rebellion. In fact, it will plunge the country into a political and economic crisis that has lasted for ten years.
From the first free ballot to war
In full post-revolutionary euphoria, the country elected its first National Assembly on July 7, 2012. The General National Congress (CGN) will replace the CNT. But the ballot is punctuated with violence and this will continue beyond the elections. In September, the American consulate in Benghazi was attacked and Ambassador Christopher Stevens was killed in the attack. Then a few months later, in April 2013, it was that of France in Tripoli that was targeted. It is the beginning of Libya’s withdrawal into itself, diplomatic missions are closing one after the other.
The year 2014 will mark the shift in the war. The government is unable to prevent repeated attacks by armed groups on oil installations. Led by Islamists, the CGN decides to impose Sharia law on the country, and especially to extend its mandate beyond its term.
The weight of the militias
General Khalifa Haftar, appointed Chief of Staff of the armed forces after the fall of Gaddafi, will then try to become the new strongman of Libya. But in 2014, he failed to take control of Tripoli against the militias and then withdrew to the east of the country, to Benghazi, where he installed his government. A critical period for the country which sees Daesh establishing itself in the Sirte region.
In December 2015, representatives of civil society and members of parliament struggled to sign a UN-sponsored agreement in Skhirat, Morocco. A Government of National Unity (GNA) is proclaimed. Its leader Fayez al-Sarraj moved to Tripoli in March 2016, but in the east, the parallel cabinet and parliament rejected the GNA. The country will then be led by two entities: the GNA in the West, the LNA (Libyan National Army) of Haftar in the East.
A very relative power after all. More than ever, Libya is in the hands of militias, the most formidable of which is the Islamic State group. Militias that make it rain and shine, depending on the reversal of alliances. The control of the main terminals of the country becomes the stake of a conflict which increases little by little. Daesh, left the chessboard at the end of 2016, Haftar can therefore take an interest in Tripoli.
Haftar’s new failure
In April 2019, the now Marshal Haftar launched the offensive on Tripoli. Hopes for dialogue between the two camps are crumbling, as each seeks international support. And it is thanks to the support of the Turks that the GNA will push back the LNA offensive supported by Russia in the spring of 2020. In October, a ceasefire was finally signed between the belligerents. Which opens the way to a negotiated solution for a return to peace and the construction of a democratic regime. But the road is strewn with pitfalls, and nothing guarantees that the legislative and presidential elections scheduled for December 24 will take place.
The daily life of Libyans is not easy either. “Everywhere in this country of seven million souls stand out the rusty frames of huge cranes enthroned on the carcasses of unfinished buildings, invaded by weeds, witnesses of an economy at a standstill“, wrote AFP in February 2021.
Peace at last?
And despite the resumption of oil production, the country is far from being out of the woods. Shortages follow shortages, in particular of petroleum products and electricity, available part-time. Inflation is rampant: plus 25% on bread, an essential food. The GNA’s Ministry of the Economy recently recognized it: the majority of basic necessities saw their price increase by more than 50% in 2020.
In the 2000s, Libya’s GDP per capita was the highest on the continent. Ten years after the disappearance of Gaddafi, the results are particularly gloomy. The only satisfaction is that Libya’s foreign assets were placed in receivership in 2011 by the UN in order to prevent embezzlement. Enough to revive the country when calm returns.