The head of one of the main security organs in Lebanon completed his term on Friday without being replaced, a new example of the disintegration of institutions which fuels the fears of the international community that this country will sink.
Without a president for four months, the country is led by a resigning government with reduced powers while the judiciary wavers and the public sector collapses.
The unprecedented economic and financial crisis, which has plunged more than 80% of the population into poverty, is fueling fears of a security drift.
Despite these threats, political leaders have been unable to agree on extending the mandate of the powerful General Abbas Ibrahim, Director of General Security, or finding a replacement for him.
The officer, who has reached retirement age, had established himself as a political mediator in Lebanon and had contributed to the release of hostages in Syria.
“The country is in a state of almost absolute disintegration,” explains analyst Karim Bitar. “We are experiencing a direct collapse of all the state institutions that were still standing. »
Strikes and absenteeism almost completely paralyze the public sector, wages having become derisory due to the loss of more than 95% of the value of the national currency.
“The state is not even able to collect its taxes anymore”, recording car registration or transactions is almost impossible, the school year is almost lost for pupils in the public sector due to a teachers’ strike, underlines the analyst.
According to him, “this crisis is probably the most serious in the history of Lebanon”, which has nevertheless experienced a civil war with regional implications (1975-1990) and many shocks during its 100 years of existence.
On Thursday, the international support group for Lebanon, which notably includes the five members of the UN Security Council, said it was “deeply concerned about the ramifications of the prolonged presidential vacancy”.
In a statement, he warned that “the status quo is not viable” and “paralyzes the state at all levels”, calling on “politicians and members of parliament to assume their responsibilities […] by electing a president without delay”.
Paris meeting
Deeply divided between the camp of the powerful pro-Iranian Hezbollah and that of its opponents, the deputies met 11 times without being able to agree on the election of a successor to Michel Aoun, whose mandate expired on October 31 .
Since January 19, the head of Parliament Nabih Berri has not convened a new meeting, leaving the situation to get bogged down.
Faced with this deadlock, Paris brought together on February 6 representatives of the United States and three influential countries in the region, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar.
The meeting resulted in a “total unity of views” on the fact that the next president should “not be divisive, be honest, capable of regaining the confidence of the international community and guaranteeing the unity and cohesion of the country”. , said a Western diplomatic source to AFP.
At the same time, he will have to be “capable of working with a prime minister and a government that carries a reform project and sends a signal of change and serious reforms”, adds this source.
The meeting referred to “levers of pressure” on politicians who are blocking the process, without specifying them, according to this source.
Differences between the incumbent president and various prime ministers have led to months of political paralysis.
According to sources close to participants in the meeting, they noted that the names of the commander-in-chief of the army Joseph Aoun – enjoying good relations with most political parties – and the former minister Sleiman Frangié, an ally of Hezbollah , stood out.
But other names have also been mentioned, such as Jihad Azour, regional head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), with whom an agreement is vital for the country.
The IMF has denounced the slowness of the authorities in implementing the reforms necessary to release international aid.
For Karim Bitar, only “an agreement between the regional powers which wage proxy wars on Lebanese territory”, namely Iran and Saudi Arabia, is capable of unblocking the situation and allowing the election of a president.
The analyst expresses the fear of seeing “an even greater deterioration in the economic situation which could lead to security incidents. »
Powerless in the face of this impasse, the Maronite bishops, a powerful Christian community from which the Head of State must come, called on March 10 for… a “day of prayers” for the election of a President of the Republic.