Snow and missiles fell on Kiev on Tuesday as Russia massed its troops around the Ukrainian capital in anticipation of a siege that promises to be tough and bloody. On the spot, sheltered from the bombs, the population awaits the enemy, convinced of being able to triumph.
A week ago, Aida Poltorak was leading, in her words, “an ideal life”. She was teaching English in the suburbs of Kiev, enjoying her dream dacha with her husband, seeing friends, preparing good meals for the family.
Then a rude awakening disrupted Kyryivshchyna’s life six days ago. The Russian air force bombed the civilian airport of Boryspil, located a few kilometers from Mr.me Poltorak. The war had just struck: since then, the school has been closed, her husband is no longer there, her house serves as a refuge for ten people, food threatens to run out.
“I never imagined that today I would be here, lit by candlelight on the stairs of my basement, while my husband is in Kiev defending our country,” says the 47-year-old woman, joined on Tuesday by Zoom.
Aida Poltorak appears behind the screen: round face, jovial look, eyes that have probably cried more often from laughter than from grief. This mother with a furtive smile then places a hand at the corner of her mouth, as if to camouflage a confidence.
“I bought gasoline for my Molotov cocktails,” she whispers. I don’t know if I would be able to throw them at a Russian armored car, knowing that there are guys in there. My husband says we have no choice. »
Citizen resistance is organized in Ukraine even in hamlets like Kyryivshchyna, in the suburbs of Kiev, where men have erected checkpoints on the roads and where teachers have patented their incendiary arsenal.
Until now, the rumor of the war has remained far from this village. However, the tide could quickly turn, explains retired brigadier-general Richard Giguère. “The Russian army will most likely change strategy and regroup,” he explains. This is what seems to be taking shape with this convoy 60 kilometers north of Kiev. »
Mr. Giguère, also an expert in residence at the Graduate School of International Studies at Laval University, believes that the conflict is entering a second phase, “much more violent and decisive”.
The Russian army is now pounding the major cities of Ukraine. In the south-east, the bombings spared no district of Mariupol on Tuesday, a city of more than 450,000 inhabitants. Further north, in Kharkiv, they killed at least 18 people and littered Liberty Square with ruins. In Kiev, a missile damaged the public television tower and claimed the lives of at least five people.
Marko Suprun knew the imminence of this last attack because of the sirens which sound in the city at the approach of each air raid. “I had to talk to myself to stop worrying, explains the 52-year-old man to the Homework. Now they ring several times a day. I get used to. »
Kiev, he describes, has been idling for a week. A few shops remain open, long lines form in front of pharmacies. Cars are scarce. Police checks are increasing to flush out “Russian saboteurs”.
The capital seems suspended in the eye of a cyclone. Mr. Suprun refused to believe, Tuesday evening, that a column of Russian tanks rolled towards Kiev. “Beware of Russian propaganda,” he said — even though the information on the armored convoy, accompanied by satellite images, comes from the United States.
“The city is much quieter than before,” says Mr. Suprun. He also noticed that the stars were more likely to shine above Kiev since in the evening, on the instructions of the government, the lights go out everywhere in the country. The idea, explains Aida Poltorak by candlelight, is to disorient the Russian planes and to offer no landmarks to the enemy.
Russian strategy still unclear
“After two days of operations aimed at taking Kiev to quickly decapitate Ukrainian power, it seems obvious that the Russian troops have underestimated the Ukrainian resistance”, analyzes Yohann Michel, researcher and analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies .
Now, it is very difficult to know what strategy Moscow will employ to bring Kiev down the spine. “If the Russians decide to go and fight in the streets of Kiev, the consequences will be terrible, warns Mr. Michel, contacted in Berlin. There will be many, many deaths. »
“Fighting in a city like Kiev is a nightmare,” adds Richard Giguère. It is even, I would say, impossible to capture Kiev. It is a city of three million inhabitants, almost like Montreal. Maybe we can invade it, but holding it for the long term is a completely different thing. »
The Pentagon observes that the Russian army is having difficulty supplying its troops stationed in Ukraine. The morale of his men seems low, several are defecting, “some have almost no idea what they are doing there,” says Yohann Michel.
Facing them stands a tougher Ukrainian army than they had expected and a galvanized people, ready to die to save their country and their homes, explains Richard Giguère.
“It’s not a fad to say that Ukraine will win, believes Marko Suprun, in Kiev. We have no choice if we want to survive! »
Aida Poltorak thinks of her husband who has gone to war, of her brother who wants to enlist, of her 26-year-old daughter whose future suddenly becomes uncertain.
“I think I could throw it,” she finally said of her Molotov cocktail. Before adding, convinced in the dark: “We are going to claim victory before the end of the month. »