At 58, the nationalist and conservative leader, who flirts with the far right, seems determined to stay in power forever. The official campaign begins on Saturday February 12 in this country of 10 million inhabitants in the center of Europe. Viktor Orban intends to mark his territory from the first day, by delivering his annual address on the state of the nation. He has been in power since 2010 and says he is convinced of winning again for a 4th term. He is also trying a spectacular coup: bringing Donald Trump to Hungary before the ballot. Trump is very popular in the Hungarian countryside. But unlike the last elections in 2018, Orban faces a close-knit opposition. From the center right to the radical left, six opposition parties decided last fall to line up behind the figure of Peter Marki Zay. This 49-year-old, pro-European man is a serious rival for Orban, because he comes from the ranks of his own party, Fidesz. He is a conservative Catholic, so he does not give way to Orban’s classic attacks on the left. He’s also the mayor of a small town, so he can’t be blamed for playing the elites against the people either. The polls so far give Orban a slight advantage, three or four points ahead. But it’s tight.
We must expect a dirty campaign because Orban and his party intend to keep power, at all costs! The low blows have already begun: the Hungarian media, which are almost all controlled by Viktor Orban, broadcast dubious documents with anti-Semitic overtones. They suggest that opposition leaders are bought by Brussels or by the American billionaire George Soros, the Hungarian Prime Minister’s pet peeve. The electoral legislation, amended by the government last year, makes it possible to register fictitious addresses for voters: there is therefore a real risk of electoral fraud. Moreover, and this is extremely rare on European soil, the OSCE, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which traditionally oversees the smooth running of elections on the continent, is very worried. At the beginning of February, she announced the deployment of a large-scale mission, with at least 200 international observers on polling day. This shows how little confidence there is in the integrity of the electoral process.
The central subject of the campaign is the economy: the situation is not good. Inflation is high, more than 7% in a year. And some basic foodstuffs, such as oil and flour, even increased by 20%. This situation should theoretically benefit the opposition. But Orban found the parade. In recent weeks, he has multiplied demagogic announcements: increase in the minimum wage, freezing of the price of gasoline and now freezing of food prices, until the beginning of May, after the election. Finally, at the very beginning of February, Viktor Orban went to see his friend Vladimir Putin to obtain preferential gas deliveries from Russia. In short, he is ready to do anything to win again.