While Pôle emploi publishes its quarterly unemployment figures on Wednesday, that is to say the number of people registered over the last three months, the forecasts for the end of 2023 and 2024 are not optimistic.
So far, employment is holding up rather well in France, even though activity tends to slow down, which also surprises economists. The unemployment rate remains at historically low levels, around 7.2% of the active population according to INSEE. Pôle emploi must also publish its quarterly figures on Wednesday October 25.
Employers tend to keep their workforce even though their order books are filling up a little more slowly. If we refer to the numbers of hiring declarations that Urssaf published last week, we see that recruitment remained stable in the third quarter. Companies continued to hire, even if we see that there are slightly fewer permanent contracts signed than at the start of the year, particularly in the industrial sectors as well as in services, where the demand for labor The work is strong. On the other hand, we note a decline in construction and construction, these sectors are suffering at the moment.
Resilience in employment that is unlikely to last
For the end of the year, the landscape risks getting darker, if only because the international situation is becoming tense. For example, international tourism may be impacted, even though it is an important sector of the French economy. And then, after years of “whatever it takes”, the tap of business aid is closing. Companies must repay state-guaranteed loans, bonuses for hiring apprentices are reduced. The number of business failures is increasing.
In fact, according to the observatory of economic conditions – the OFCE -, we must expect a turnaround in terms of employment. The institute expects the destruction of nearly 53,000 jobs next year and a rise in unemployment in 2024, to around 8% of the active population.
The government is banking on toughening unemployment benefits
But the government is not changing its objective, it is still heading towards full employment at the end of the five-year term. That is to say around 5% in 2027. To achieve this, the executive is banking heavily on the creation of France Travail, the future major employment service, which will absorb Pôle emploi in 2024. All RSA beneficiaries must register and beneficiaries must complete a minimum of 15 hours of activity.
>> Is unemployment in France falling less quickly than elsewhere in Europe, as stated by Sophie Binet, general secretary of the CGT?
Without forgetting a new reform of Unemployment Insurance, which promises to toughen the rights of job seekers to encourage them to return to work more quickly.