At the end of the summer, the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in France suggests a possible eighth wave of the epidemic, the scale of which remains difficult to predict.
“The circulation of SARS-CoV-2 has started to rise again after several weeks of improvement in the epidemic situation”, thus observes the French National Public Health Agency, Public Health France, in its weekly update.
Thursday, 33,263 new cases attributed to COVID-19 were recorded against 19,866 a week earlier, a jump of more than 67%.
“For two days, the reproduction rate [le fameux R] of the virus is greater than 1, which is a robust signal of an epidemic resumption,” epidemiologist Mircea Sofonea told AFP.
Another indicator: the number of tests increased by 9% the week of September 5 to 11, said the statistical service of the health and social ministries. They have notably increased sharply among those under 16 (+56%).
“The number of PCR tests is currently not very high and does not allow very reliable analyzes to be made, but the trend seems to confirm at the very least a halt in the epidemic decline and possibly a rebound, a premise for a possible new pandemic wave”, analyzed epidemiologist Antoine Flahault for AFP.
This is not an unprecedented situation. At the same time in 2021, with the return to school, the Delta variant, which had also caused a summer wave, returned to trigger an autumn-winter wave.
“It seems that the current dominant sub-variant of Omicron, BA.5, which hit Europe this summer, is spreading again since the start of the school year and is progressing in all regions of metropolitan France. [sauf encore la Corse]and in almost all Western European countries,” said Antoine Flahault.
If an eighth wave were to occur, it still seems difficult to predict its magnitude. Indeed, it is not known precisely to what extent the population is currently immunized.
“We will remain in a certain fog for at least the next two weeks”, predicts Mircea Sofonea.
Despite the recommendations of health authorities, only about 30% of people over 60 have received a second booster dose.
On Wednesday, the World Health Organization (WHO) sent a message of hope, deeming the end of the pandemic “within reach”, but inviting us not to relax our efforts to achieve it.