in conflict for many years, Armenia and Azerbaijan agree to demarcate their common border

Armenia and Azerbaijan have together started to redraw their common border. An essential step towards peace after years of war.

Seeing two countries agree to demarcate their territory together remains an extremely rare event in the world, even if this future route in this case obeys the law of the strongest.

These two neighbors in the South Caucasus have been in conflict for decades. Between 2020 and 2023 Azerbaijan relaunched the offensive and recaptured large areas by force, including the most symbolic place in the region, the separatist enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, which capitulated in 24 hours in September 2023 leading to the exodus of all its inhabitants. A ceasefire has been signed, territorial conquests are now frozen. After eight rounds of negotiations, experts from both countries are on the ground to map the territory and draw the border. It won’t be very far from a big gas pipeline. A first terminal was installed on Tuesday April 23. Russian soldiers who have been serving as a peacekeeping force for 30 years have begun to withdraw. They will be replaced by border guards from the two countries.

Several attempts at mediation without success

Several countries have tried to mediate in recent years: Russia, Iran, the United States, France and Germany. The negotiations all failed. And it was ultimately without the intervention of a third party that Armenia and Azerbaijan managed to move forward. “We are not talking about any mediation, because what is currently happening at our border proves that when we are left alone, we can come to an agreement sooner rather than later“, said Ilham Aliyev, the president of Azerbaijan.

Yerevan and Baku have agreed to return to the delimitation that existed during the Soviet era, before 1991. The Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, who does not want to lose face, assures that there will be no “transfer of sovereign territory of one’s country“. In March, he still accepted that four Azerbaijani villages seized in the 1990s by Armenia, and now abandoned, return to the control of Baku. He sees this concession as the price to pay for reduce the risk of conflict. Residents of border areas see it more as a sign of weakness. They remain worried. Several demonstrations have taken place in recent days.

A fragile balance

Except that it is imperative to go through the establishment of this border to begin peace discussions. A peace agreement is also “closer than ever“, this is what the Azerbaijani president says, in a burst of optimism, a little too enthusiastic to be sincere… Ilham Aliev has never hidden it: his objective, in the long term, remains to join the exclave of Nakhitchevan, then the border of its great ally, Turkey. To do this, it must restore the continuity of its territory, which to the south is literally cut in two by Armenia.

While thanks to the war in Ukraine, Azerbaijan is gaining power and establishing itself as a key player, the European Union has, for example, signed an agreement with Baku to double gas imports by 2027 , Ilham Aliev has already started to negotiate the creation of a land corridor in this area. New border or not, there is ample reason to find a pretext for a future war in the years to come.