First, a senior diplomat sidelined. Then a Minister of Defense who is no longer seen in public. In China, these mysterious public disappearances are more intriguing than ever about the opacity of President Xi Jinping’s power.
Defense Minister Li Shangfu is reportedly under investigation and relieved of his duties, US officials believe, according to information released last week by the Financial Times.
Appointed six months ago, Li Shangfu suddenly disappeared from the public scene a few weeks ago.
In June, the same thing happened to Qin Gang, then foreign minister. Promoted in March and seen as a close ally of President Xi, he was fired at the end of July without any explanation, after several weeks of absence as well.
At the same time, China announced that former Navy commander Wang Houbin would take over as head of the missile unit, following press reports of a corruption investigation.
His predecessor, Li Yuchao, had disappeared a few weeks earlier. No explanation has leaked into state media.
“The composition of President Xi’s cabinet now resembles Agatha Christie’s novel There were ten of them », joked at the beginning of September the American ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, on the social network X (formerly Twitter).
“We have neither seen nor heard from” Li Shangfu for three weeks, he noted on September 8.
For analyst Sun Yun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, such a situation “says a lot about the unpredictability of China’s personal decisions and domestic politics today.”
Close allies
Since taking over as head of the Communist Party in 2012, Xi Jinping has tightened his control over the government, appointing some of his closest political allies to top posts.
“If we learn that Li (Shangfu) has also been sidelined, that would not be positive for Xi’s image,” believes Sun Yun. Because “Qin Gang and Li Shangfu were both chosen by him.”
The fight against corruption has long been the hobby horse of the Chinese president, who launched a vast campaign against all possible offenders upon his ascension to power.
While some welcome this effort to clean up Chinese politics, its detractors also see it as an effective way to get rid of political rivals.
“Very soon after coming to power, Xi Jinping launched a purge at the highest levels of the military and security forces, and it continues today,” policy expert Sheena Chestnut Greitens told Agence France-Presse. authoritarians in East Asia and professor at the University of Texas.
Chinese leader sees corruption as ‘fundamental threat,’ says Mrme Chestnut Greiten “because it makes people loyal to personal profits, more than to the Communist Party.”
If the campaign initially seemed to target potential competitors, more recent investigations now target Xi Jinping’s own allies.
“That they are dismissed so quickly raises questions about the information transmitted or not to Xi when he chooses people” for ministries, and about “what happened for them to be dismissed so quickly,” notes Sheena Chestnut Greitens.
” The talkers [de la Chine] have to wonder if the person they are talking to really has power and influence in Beijing, or if they will disappear and be uncontactable for months.”
Speculations
The possible dismissal of Li Shangfu and the unexplained departure of the former head of the missile unit, Li Yuchao, seem to indicate that Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign is reaching the highest echelons of the Chinese army.
For Lyle Morris, associate researcher in foreign policy and national security at the Asia Society Policy Institute, the disappearance of Li Shangfu also shows that this campaign is “far from over” in the army.
“This is not some obscure unknown that can be quietly dismissed,” he wrote of Li Yuchao on X.
China has yet to confirm whether any of the three men are under investigation, and refuses to answer any questions on the matter.
“I am not aware of the situation you mention,” said Mao Ning, a spokesperson for Chinese diplomacy, questioned Tuesday about an article in Wall Street Journal explaining Qin Gang’s dismissal through an extramarital affair.
The absence of official explanations opens the door to all speculation and makes China even more opaque to outside eyes.
“This reinforces the feeling of unpredictability in Chinese foreign policy, at a time when the Chinese political system is already less transparent and more difficult for foreigners to understand,” notes Sheena Chestnut Greitens.