Aung San Suu Kyi is no more than a symbol. It is a lot and it is a little at the same time. Since the military coup of last February in this country of 54 million inhabitants located in the south of China, the Nobel Peace Prize has embodied the past more than the present or the future of the dispute. It is because she is a symbol, known worldwide, that the regime is attacking her in a deliberate, almost Kafkaesque way. Monday, December 6 in the morning, without any surprise, Aung San Suu Kyi was therefore sentenced two years in prison : partly for inciting public disturbances, partly for violating health rules linked to the pandemic.
It is impossible to find out more, the press is not allowed to attend the trial, and defense lawyers are not allowed to speak. But this is only the beginning. The leader of the National League for Democracy, now 76 years old, is being prosecuted for 11 other grounds of indictment, which will earn her 11 other trials: electoral fraud, corruption and even the illegal importation of walkie-talkies. The next hearing is scheduled for Tuesday, December 14. The idea of the regime is to stack the sentences to end in life imprisonment. But since the regime knows the subject is sensitive, Aung San Suu Kyi is probably not in prison, she is more likely under house arrest.
However, it does not change much in the mobilization of opponents and this is perhaps where the Burmese military regime is making a mistake. Of course, Aung San Suu Kyi’s conviction is causing a stir, sparking many convictions in Western capitals. Of course, many Burmese remain faithful to the one who has been nicknamed the “Lady of Rangoon”. On Sunday December 5, at least three people were killed by the army during a demonstration demanding his release. But opponents have now taken note that the challenge must be done without it.
Aung San Suu Kyi already had his detractors before, due to his authoritarian conception of power and his reluctance to condemn the crackdown on the Rohingya Muslim minority. The opposition is now carried by a new generation, much younger, embodied by thirty-something, like Thinzar Shunlei Yi, a former television journalist. They mobilize via social networks, advocate civil disobedience via one-off actions (for example doctor strikes, boycotts of products manufactured by the military). And above all, they regard the Nobel Prize as an icon of the past.
There is also the rise of an armed opposition and there too that escapes Aung San Suu Kyi. For several weeks, we have been witnessing an attempt to form an alliance between armed groups opposed to the regime, in particular structured groups within ethnic minorities, the Karen and the Chans. Here again, it is difficult to have reliable and cross-checked information, but there is recurrent fighting in several regions, including in the center of the country, despite the Bamar land, the majority ethnic group. This is a new fact.
The risk of civil war exists with a Burmese army, Tatmadaw, very powerful and organized. What happens next will largely depend on the attitude of Beijing, traditional support for Burmese power.