Will the pension reform have an impact on the next elections? One year from the Europeans, the presidential camp is very optimistic. Jean-Rémi Baudot’s political brief.
“Honestly, that’s a great poll!“: this is how a Renaissance executive reacts to the Ifop study on the European elections, published on May 13. Although it comes in 2nd or 3rd position behind the RN and Nupes, depending on the scenarios, the presidential party says it is confident : being credited with 19 and 22%, in the midst of a pension crisis, in Macronie, is seen as a good score.
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An observation shared in Brussels: “It’s a solid base, in a not easy moment“, decrypts an adviser. “20% means that we still have Macron’s European electoral base”, reassures a MEP from the majority.
Talking about Europe so as not to talk about pensions
Coué method in the midst of a political crisis? A little. But the macronists in Brussels are betting that the political context in a year will be different. Who can say that the “pans” will still punctuate the President’s trips in June 2024?
Then, they have a conviction: that the French will remember that Europe has been there for the pandemic, the post-Covid recovery and especially for Ukraine. “We have to show that at 27, we are stronger”, hammers the direction of Renaissance in Brussels, thus outlining the arguments of a future campaign. The Europeans 2024 are still a bit far even, if the question was addressed Friday morning, during a meeting “Europe Together” at the Elysee Palace between the President and the executives of the presidential majority in Europe. But according to our information, the French Renew list should not be known before the beginning of 2024. Ditto for the head of the list.
Macronie fears a “Socialists and Ecologists” list
“We have no interest in returning to the campaign too early“, pleads a Macronist pillar in Brussels, as a way of taking some distance from retreats and, also, of observing the movements of opponents.
An adviser theorizes: “Whether for or against, the lists which have recently made the best scores had clear speeches on Europe”. This is true for the RN, Euro-skeptic; this is true for macronists, pro-Europeans. And the left? Whether divided or gathered in Nupes format, it does not move the polls of the Macronist list much.
Renew’s real fear would be a “Socialists and Ecologists” list. An ideal solution for voters attentive to Europe and the climate who would no longer wish to support Emmanuel Macron. A strategy that would nibble at the base that the Macronists still hope to have and precisely developed behind the scenes by socialist executives.