in Brussels, astonishment, concerns and many questions about France’s weight in Europe before the first round

The French President’s decision to dissolve the Assembly has caused a shock in Brussels, where many are wondering what the impact of the elections on 30 June and 7 July will be for Europe. Will Emmanuel Macron, who is highly regarded in Brussels for his pro-European commitment, be further weakened by these elections after his failure in the European elections? Will France change direction?

But for the moment in Brussels, the official slogan is: no comments: “There is an electoral campaign underway”, explains a commissioner. But off the microphone, it is a mixture of astonishment and concern that dominates. Many people wonder about how cohabitation works. The French political system remains a mystery for our partners, who are more accustomed to coalitions.

Will France, the founding country and second economic power of the bloc, continue to play its role as the driving force of the European Union? What is the RN’s power to cause harm if it comes to power? Eric Maurice is an analyst at the European political studies center EPC, and for him these are the main concerns: “We know that nothing is done without a Franco-German agreement, and that if there is an RN government, there will be head-on opposition to the European Union and its policies, it is this double aspect which worried here in Brussels.”

But for ordinary legislative work, even with far-right ministers, diplomats will know how to do it, says one of them. “We got along well with Meloni…”he said.

It is the support for Ukraine that generates a lot of comments. We reassure ourselves by saying that Macron will stay at the Elysée until 2027, confides a senior official. But if political support is not in doubt, concerns are more pronounced about the future of budgetary aid in kyiv.