The outgoing president should be re-elected after a vote in which the opposition was muzzled. While the Egyptian economy is collapsing, the soldier who came to power through a coup in 2013 presents himself as an essential interlocutor in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
A vote without surprises. Egyptians are called to the polls, from Sunday December 10, to vote in a presidential election whose result leaves little doubt. Thanks to a constitutional revision he initiated and in the absence of opposition candidates, outgoing President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, 69, is expected to win a third term and remain in power until 2030.
During his campaign, President al-Sissi did not comment on his record and did not participate in any political meetings. However, the Egyptian economy is collapsing. Inflation has reached 40% and food prices have soared. Nearly 30% of the country’s population lives below the poverty line, according to the World Bank. In ten years, civil society has continued to be repressed. But the raïs prefers to turn his attention towards the war between Hamas and Israel, in which he intends to be a key player for several reasons.
Showing support for the Palestinians
In the aftermath of Hamas’s bloody attacks against Israel on October 7, President al-Sissi strove to show unwavering support for the Palestinians. On October 20, the Egyptian government organized large rallies across the country in support of the Gaza Strip, even though protesting is usually illegal. Tens of thousands of people took to the streets chanting “Bread, freedom, Arab Palestine”, in reference to one of the slogans of the 2011 revolution which overthrew President Hosni Mubarak.
There is in the Egyptian president, while his country is going through an economic crisis, “a desire to appropriate popular anger”, said to AFP Moustafa Kamel al-Sayyed, professor of political science at Cairo University. The processions broadcast live by media close to power are also an opportunity to show that Egyptians “express support for President Sissi”, adds the specialist.
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Due to the 12 km border it shares with Gaza, and the Rafah border crossing it controls in the south of the Palestinian territory, Egypt is becoming a key player in the conflict. On the 15th day of the war, the first trucks of humanitarian aid transited from Egypt to the Gaza Strip, where more than two million inhabitants survive without water, electricity or fuel. Tons of food and medical aid from all over the world are stored in El-Arich, the capital of Egyptian Sinai, bordering Gaza. The regime also organized a donation campaign, a blood drive and the recruitment of volunteers, underlines The world.
On November 24, During a speech entitled “Long live Egypt, people’s response in solidarity with Palestine”, President al-Sisi praised his role in the war and proclaimed that “Egyptian blood was mixed with Palestinian blood.”
Reaffirming Egypt’s power
Egypt is not limited to managing humanitarian aid in Gaza. For years, Cairo has been a traditional broker in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict due to the country’s historical ties to both sides. Egypt occupied the Gaza Strip between 1948 and 1967 and is the first Arab country to have normalized its relations with the Jewish state in 1979. During the wars of 2013, 2018 and 2021, it brought together around the table the different belligerents to sign ceasefires and organized international cooperation to rebuild Gaza.
In this wake, Abdel Fatah al-Sissi convened a “peace summit” on October 21 to which all countries wishing to work for a ceasefire were invited. Among the personalities present: the head of the UN Antonio Guterres, European leaders Charles Michel and Josep Borrell, the King of Jordan Abdullah II, the President of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas, French, German and British diplomats.
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Even if Western and Arab representatives failed to agree on a common text at the end of this meeting, this diplomatic activism “was a way for al-Sissi to remind the whole world of his essential place in stabilizing the conflict”, underlines to franceinfo Timothy Kaldas, researcher at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy.
“The Egyptian president likes to highlight his role in the hostage negotiation, in the search for a ceasefire.”
Timothy Kaldas, researcher at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policyat franceinfo
Like Qatar, Cairo made itself essential to securing the process of exchanging Israeli hostages held by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners. Egypt received a delegation from Hamas, led by its leader Ismaïl Haniyeh, then the director of Israeli internal intelligence Ronen Bar, reports The cross. On November 15, when Hamas suddenly stopped negotiations, Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel managed to restart discussions.
This commitment is all the more important for the Egyptian regime“that its influence in the region has diminished in recent decades”, supports Mostafa al-A’sar, Egyptian journalist and non-resident researcher at the Tahrir Institute. “Egypt’s room for diplomatic maneuver depends on the approval of the United States and the Gulf countries,” he estimates from franceinfo.
Fears for internal security
By getting involved in resolving the war in Gaza, President al-Sissi is also seeking to control the potential consequences for his country. The regime fears an influx of refugees at its border. In October, Israeli officials considered that some of the displaced Palestinians could resettle in Egypt’s Sinai, cites The Cairo Review of Global Affairs. A proposal immediately rejected by President al-Sissi, who sees it as a “time bomb”.
At the end of the war, “If Gaza is completely destroyed, where would the refugees return?” asks sociologist Said Sadek to the World. Egyptian leaders fear that Sinai will become a land of refuge for Palestinians, while the country is already facing the arrival of tens of thousands of exiles fleeing the war in Sudan.
“History has shown that if Israel pushed Palestinians to take refuge in another country, it would never let them return home.”
Timothy Kaldasat franceinfo
And even if the Egyptian regime dialogues with Hamas, it does not want to take the risk of seeing members of the group created in the wake of the Muslim Brotherhood, to which it is “fiercely opposed”, recalls Timothy Kaldas.
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Furthermore, President al-Sisi “knows that the Palestinian question is flammable for Egyptian society because it is ‘the mother of all causes'”, continues journalist Mostafa al-A’sar. For decades, the Palestinian cause has been a major politicizing factor for generations of young Egyptians. “In 2011, protesters were decidedly pro-Palestinian,” recalls the Arab Reform Initiative, an independent think tank based in Paris. After October 7, the regime, even though it officially encouraged public support for Palestine, quickly banned rallies for fear that they would broaden into challenges to power. Will these maneuvers have an impact on the presidential election? During the previous presidential elections of 2014 and 2018, Abdel Fattah al-Sissi won 96% of the vote.