Between the contracting economy and slowing inflation, employers are being less generous this year. The increase in remuneration was around 5 to 6% in 2023.
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In 2024, prepare for slightly lower salary increases, this is what several studies show. DAnalyzes carried out by Human Resources firms, such as the Alpha group, which comb through hundreds of salary agreements signed in private companies, or even LHH, which has a remuneration observatory. All these analyzes show the same trend. This year, employers plan to be less generous with employees. In the private sector, we will rather see an increase in remuneration of between 3% and 4% on average, compared to 5 to 6% in 2023.
Inflation has been rising more slowly in recent months, so employers are adapting. They are also cautious, because the economic situation promises to be more difficult. Order books are contracting, geopolitical tensions are still very intense, particularly in the Red Sea, and Germany, our largest trading partner, is in recession.
Behind these averages, there are, as always, differences. In large groups, employees more often receive raises because, most of the time, they have unions that can negotiate better. There are also significant differences between sectors of activity. Where employers lack manpower and have had difficulty recruiting or retaining talent, they are more accommodating on pay slips. This is the case in industry, metallurgy and transport. In data analysis, cybersecurity, IT, salary increases are also more marked because these professions are really on the rise at the moment. We compete for these skills.
Privileged individual increases
With inflation stagnating, around 2.5% if we are to believe the forecasts of the Banque de France, workers who will be lucky enough to receive an increase of more than 2.5% will see their purchasing power preserved. , see improved. But the risk is to have much higher inflation, under the effect of a new crisis or a war, and in this case, workers, even with wage increases, will lose. Furthermore, these studies clearly show that in more than one case in two, management in fact favors individual increases, negotiated on a case-by-case basis, and therefore more random and not automatic.
And then, rather than an increase over time, we pay a bonus. Moreover, Macron bonuses, tax-free, remain a tool that employers use. They will continue this year, but to a lesser extent, since barely a third of companies plan to do so, compared to almost one in two in 2023.