“In 2023, there will be more than 26 million trips caused by disasters,” warns François Gemenne

Every Saturday we decipher climate issues with François Gemenne, professor at HEC, president of the Scientific Council of the Foundation for Nature and Man and member of the IPCC.

Since the beginning of May, torrential rains of extreme violence have plunged the State of Rio Grande do Sul, all the way south of Brazil. THE “worst climate disaster” never seen before, said Eduardo Leite, the governor of this state bordering Uruguay and Argentina. Gigantic mudslides, houses and cars drowned as far as the eye can see, the provisional toll deplores 147 dead and 124 missing. Relief efforts continue today; rescue, clean-up and water and food distribution operations concern more than two million people and countless infrastructures are destroyed.

François Gemenne : These are the most serious floods in the history of this state, which have already displaced more than 620,000 people since the beginning of May. Climate disasters in the region had already displaced more than 150,000 people last year.

“In Porto Alegre in Brazil, the risk of flooding is such that we wonder if we should not simply relocate the city!”

François Gemenne

at franceinfo

This rather crazy project is obviously a very cumbersome process, which also raises the question of people’s right not to be displaced. The most impressive case concerns the capital of Indonesia, Jakarta: three years ago, the Indonesian government decided to build a new capital, Nusantara, on the island of Borneo. The risks of flooding had become too great in Jakarta, in particular because of the risk of submersion linked to rising sea levels. They gave themselves 15 years to complete the project. And Jakarta still has more than 10 million inhabitants.

franceinfo: Could millions of residents one day be forced to leave their homes because of climate change?

This is already the case, in proportions that we do not fully realize. The Observatory of Internal Displacement Situations – in English, the IDMC, which is an NGO based in Geneva. Each year, this observatory compiles the number of internal displacements, therefore within the same country, which are caused by disasters and conflicts.

“Each year, the number of population displacements linked to disasters is greater than the number of displacements caused by conflicts.”

François Gemenne

at franceinfo

The figures for 2023 were published this week, and it’s still the case: more than 26 million displacements caused by disasters, compared to 20 million displacements linked to conflicts – even though 2023 was a year particularly deadly, we unfortunately do not need to remind you of this.

Which areas of the world are affected?

These enormous figures particularly affect certain areas of the world. This varies quite a bit depending on the year, but it is clearly South and South-East Asia which generally records the highest levels of travel. Cyclone Mocha, for example, caused more than two million displacements: 1.3 million in Bangladesh, and 900,000 in Burma. And to complicate matters, the cyclone particularly affected Rohingya refugee camps, who had already been displaced by violence and persecution in their country of origin. In many cases, conflict and disaster overlap, increasing the risk of people being displaced multiple times or for a prolonged period. In 2023, of the 45 countries that recorded conflict-related displacement, all but three also recorded disaster-related displacement. This is particularly the case in Sudan, Syria, Afghanistan, Somalia and even Nigeria.

Note that we speak of displacements rather than displaced persons, because the statistics record the number of displacements over a calendar year, and it is possible for the same person to be displaced several times. So the number of displacements is not quite equivalent to the number of people displaced.

“The IDMC report tells us that as of December 31, 2023, there were 7.7 million people who remained displaced by disasters in 83 countries.”

François Gemenne

at franceinfo

Often we mix the number of people who are displaced during a period with the number of people who remain displaced on a specific date. This is very important, because there are cases where people displaced by disasters can return home relatively quickly, and others where they remain displaced for a very long time.

Should we include these migration issues in our adaptation policies?

Obviously these disasters will increase with climate change. One of the main effects of climate change is to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme phenomena. The earthquake in Turkey in February 2023 displaced 4 million people. But most of the displacements were caused by climatic disasters: droughts, floods, cyclones, fires. We must therefore include these migration issues in our adaptation policies.

Even in France, we are concerned by these population movements. In 2022, forest fires displaced 45,000 people, for example. A survey carried out at the end of 2023 by Ipsos, and commissioned by EDF, shows that 26% of French people think they will have to leave their homes in the next 10 years, because of the impacts of climate change. A quarter of French people therefore envisage finding themselves in this situation one day: it is no longer a future and distant risk, it is now a reality which can concern us all.