(Washington) The United States recorded in 2021 its strongest growth since 1984, driven by massive stimulus plans and vaccination, but 2022 is already threatened by Omicron, inflation, and the paralysis of the investment plan of Joe Biden.
Posted at 2:05 p.m.
The gross domestic product (GDP) of the world’s largest economy grew 5.7% in 2021, according to a preliminary Commerce Department estimate released Thursday.
President Joe Biden hailed the growth: “GDP numbers for my first year show we’re finally building an American economy for the 21stand century”.
This strong economic rebound, however, comes after the historic contraction of 2020, under the effect of the health crisis linked to COVID-19: the American GDP had fallen by 3.5%, its largest drop since 1946.
In 2021, growth was driven by household consumption expenditure (+7.9%) and business investment in the country (+9.5%).
“Consumers have been spending lavishly to ease the monotony of quarantines, renovate their homes and recapture the joy of travel,” commented economist Diane Swonk of Grant Thornton.
For their part, “companies have invested heavily in technology to support the shift from in-person to online activities, including working from home,” she added.
Growth in 2021 is better than expected by the US central bank (Fed) which was expecting 5.5% and by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which was expecting 5.6%.
This even allowed the United States to register higher growth in the second and fourth quarters than that of its Chinese rival, which is slowing down. This is the first time in 20 years, rejoiced the White House.
Over the year as a whole, however, Chinese growth (+8.1%) remains higher.
Eurozone GDP will be released on Monday.
Euphoria in the first semester
The year had started with a bang, as household bank accounts had been inflated by massive stimulus packages and in the spring, hopes arose that the pandemic would soon be a distant memory, thanks to the vaccination campaign. .
Growth was 6.4% in the first quarter, and 6.7% in the second. The world’s largest economy had even returned to its pre-epidemic level.
But the outbreak of the Delta variant of COVID-19 was a reality check, and growth had slowed to 2.3% in the third quarter.
In the fourth quarter, growth accelerated to 6.9% at an annualized rate, well above the 5.6% expected by analysts. GDP is 3.1% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2019, the last before the COVID-19 pandemic.
The United States favors growth at an annualized rate, ie projected over the entire year at this rate. Other advanced economies, such as France, simply compare to the previous quarter; US quarterly growth was then 1.7%.
“Spectacular” slowdown expected
However, Diane Swonk warns, “growth is about to slow again quite dramatically in the first quarter”.
On the one hand, the Omicron variant slowed down activity from the very last days of 2021. Faced with increased absences, airlines had to cancel thousands of flights, restaurants reduced their opening hours, factories hampered their production.
Inflation also threatens. Because the trillions of dollars injected into the economy by the federal government have, of course, allowed the economy to rebound quickly and strongly, but it has caused prices to rise.
In the face of very strong demand, supply is failing to keep up, due to global supply disruptions causing shortages and delays, which economists expect to last this year, at least in the first half of the year. .
Consumer prices rose 3.9% in 2021, the biggest rise since 1990, with an acceleration in the last quarter (+6.5%), according to the Commerce Department’s PCE index, favored by the bank. central american (Fed), and also published on Thursday.
The other inflation index, that of the Department of Labor (PCI), published on January 12, had reported inflation of 7% in 2021, the largest increase since June 1982.
The gigantic investment plans of Joe Biden, supposed to ensure long-term growth, have lead in the wing, paralyzed in Congress. As a result, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its growth forecast for the United States, forecasting 4.0% for 2022, compared to 5.2% previously.
The Fed is also forecasting 4.0% growth.