2024 has been confirmed as the hottest year on record, with global temperatures surpassing +1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. Urgent warnings highlight the need for a 43% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 to avoid severe climate impacts. Current commitments are insufficient, projecting only a modest 2.6% reduction. Despite some positive trends in emissions, the challenge remains daunting, with significant societal changes required to meet climate targets and mitigate escalating climate crises.
The Unprecedented Heat of 2024
It has been confirmed: 2024 has officially become the hottest year ever recorded on our planet, marking the first instance where global temperatures have surpassed +1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. This alarming finding comes from the European Copernicus Observatory’s report titled ‘Global Climate Highlights in 2024,’ released on January 10. The global average temperature last year was 15.10°C, reflecting a staggering increase of 1.60°C over the benchmark period of 1850-1900.
Urgent Warnings and Global Implications
According to Samantha Burgess, the deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), “Every year in the past decade ranks among the ten hottest on record.” She emphasized the critical situation we face as we approach the 1.5°C threshold established in the Paris Agreement, noting that the average temperature of the last two years has already exceeded this crucial limit.
This new warning follows an earlier alert from scientists associated with the Global Carbon Project, who indicated a 50% likelihood that global warming could breach the 1.5°C threshold. The question remains: is it too late to adhere to this vital target? The reality is complex.
Currently, it appears that the world is heading in the wrong direction. Climatologist Robert Vautard, a research director at CNRS and an IPCC member, states, “Unless a miracle occurs, it is improbable that we will limit warming to below +1.5°C in the coming years.” To meet this goal, global greenhouse gas emissions must decrease by 43% by 2030 and 57% by 2035. Unfortunately, existing commitments from nations only project a modest reduction of 2.6% over the next five years.
Furthermore, the margin for error is slim. Over the past decade, global temperatures have already surpassed a 1.2°C increase compared to pre-industrial levels. A report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) last October warned that the Paris Agreement’s objective could soon be unattainable. While it remains technically feasible to keep warming below 1.5°C, the magnitude of the challenge is undeniable.
“We are perilously close to the limit, particularly because leading greenhouse gas-emitting countries, including major developing nations like India and China, have yet to initiate the significant transformations required,” cautions Sébastien Treyer, director general of Iddri. Present policies are driving the world toward an estimated warming of 3.1°C by the century’s end.
The challenges of adhering to the Paris Agreement grow more daunting as climate issues become increasingly contentious. Developing policies that balance social justice and cultural acceptance, such as reducing meat consumption, is difficult. Additionally, the rise of populism in key global economies, exemplified by figures like Donald Trump, who has dismissed climate change as a ‘hoax,’ complicates matters further.
Treyer also highlights the “inevitable tensions between the urgency to act, as we approach the 1.5°C threshold, and the time required for societal change.” This creates the risk that efforts to combat climate change may arrive too late or not materialize at all.
Robert Vautard emphasizes the long-lasting impact of carbon emissions, stating, “Every atom of carbon released from fossil fuels will remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years.” Estimates suggest that greenhouse gases emitted by human activities in the 21st century may take hundreds of thousands of years to dissipate completely.
Beyond the critical +1.5°C mark, the current challenge is to prevent warming from exceeding 2°C. The Paris Agreement aims to keep warming well below this threshold while striving for the 1.5°C goal. However, it is essential to recognize that the 2°C limit is of utmost importance, as exceeding it would lead to increasingly severe impacts and extreme weather events.
Vautard reminds us that “every degree counts, just as every ton of CO2 emitted matters.” Despite the grim outlook, there are glimmers of hope. “Over the past decade, we have managed to avoid a few gigatons of greenhouse gas emissions each year due to climate policies,” he notes.
Positive developments are also emerging from various countries. For example, China, the largest greenhouse gas emitter, experienced a 3% decrease in emissions for the first time in March 2024 and may reach its peak emissions sooner than anticipated. In Europe, a decline in emissions has been ongoing for several years. Whether these efforts will keep temperature rise below 2°C remains uncertain, but it is a question that will begin to be answered this year as nations outline their strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2035.