(Montreal) Canadian air travelers should be largely spared the impact of the grounding of Boeing’s 737 Max 9, but it would probably be better if they checked their itineraries more than once.
Some passengers may be checked in on routes affected by the US Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) order, which grounded the Max 9 after part of the fuselage tore off a plane of Alaska Airlines on Friday, leaving a hole the size of a refrigerator in the cabin wall and prompting an emergency landing. No one was seriously injured.
The grounding led to cancellations for nearly 200,000 passengers south of the border, with 171 planes temporarily banned from taking off.
Boeing shares also fell 8% on Monday to close at US$229.
No Canadian airlines operate the Max 9, but some of the major carriers have partnerships with Alaska Airlines and United Airlines, both of which include the narrow-body jets in their fleets. Alaska Airlines has 65 Max 9s, or 28% of its fleet, and United has 79, or 8% of its aircraft fleet. Canadians regularly board some of these planes for connecting flights.
WestJet and Alaska have an interline agreement, allowing travel on different networks with a single reservation. Air Canada and United have entered into a codeshare agreement that allows passengers to book trips with either carrier to about 50 destinations in the United States and Canada, with hundreds of flights per day.
United said it planned to cancel 200 flights for Monday alone and hoped to redirect affected passengers to other flights.
“We continue to avoid some cancellations by using other aircraft models wherever possible,” the airline said in an email.
January, a relatively calm month
The extent of the ripple effect will depend on whether the problem is one-off or the product of a systemic flaw, said John Gradek, who teaches aviation management at McGill University.
“If it’s systemic across the entire Max 9 fleet, it could take some time” and have serious repercussions for carriers that rely on the plane, Mr. Gradek said.
“This aircraft is a workhorse for Alaska Airlines. »
Alaska canceled nearly 22% of its flights from Saturday to Monday and United canceled 9% over the past two days, according to tracking service FlightAware. The numbers currently put airlines in the top two spots for the percentage of canceled flights in the United States and Canada, which stood at more than 1,100 cancellations as of Monday evening.
Helane Becker, an analyst at TD Cowen, said these measures would continue at least until midweek.
“To state the obvious, not everyone will be resettled on Alaska, United or Copa” – whose 29 Max 9s represent 30% of the Panamanian carrier’s fleet – argued Mme Becker.
“January is typically a relatively quiet month for the industry, and having this happen after the holidays is annoying, but less impactful,” she argued.
The 171 grounded planes will have to pass an inspection before they can resume flying, the FAA announced on Saturday.
Boeing’s reputation is weakening
The episode marks another blow to Boeing’s reputation after the 737 Max 8 jetliner was grounded for 20 months in 2019 and 2020, costing the US manufacturer billions of dollars and raising questions about its reliability.
Aviation authorities around the world issued guidelines in March 2019 after a crash that killed all 157 people aboard an Ethiopian Airlines flight in the second of two Max model crashes less than five months apart. The plane had critical defects in its MCAS anti-stall system that could cause it to pitch nose down in the event of a sensor failure.
“People should be concerned about the culture at Boeing,” Mr. Gradek said. Boeing had an excellent reputation for delivering 100% safe aircraft. However, this reputation is starting to be tarnished. »
He suggested that Boeing’s recent problems could stem from its decision to continue rolling out new planes that largely fit a 55-year-old design, rather than starting from scratch.
“That’s been Boeing’s strategy lately: Why fix something that’s not broken? “, argued Mr. Gradek.
“For Boeing, it’s about not spending money to review an airplane on a blank document,” which requires a greater investment in time and money, he noted.
A series of small quality control issues have hampered the Virginia-based giant’s progress in recent years. The latest surfaced less than two weeks ago, when Boeing urged airlines to inspect all Max planes for a “possible loose bolt” in the rudder control system, according to the FAA.
No Canadian airline has ordered a Max 9, but at least one has its sights set on the Max 10, which has not yet been certified. WestJet announced in 2022 it would purchase 42, with an option for 22 more.
“There are concerns about the Maxes. The Max 10 is awaiting certification and there is no expected timeline,” said Robert Kokonis, president of aviation consulting firm AirTrav.
“This has a major impact on airlines so that they can achieve the network plan that they have budgeted for,” he explained. If you don’t have the planes needed to fly, it could significantly harm profits and profitability. »
For the Max 9, the design of the structure itself is probably not the source of the problem, Kokonis said.
“It could be manufacturing or assembly,” he said, adding that maintenance may also be excluded, given that the planes only started entering service in 2018.
The 13 carriers that operate the Max 9 include Turkish Airlines, Aeromexico and Icelandair. Alaska and United account for about two-thirds of these planes in service worldwide.