Even Justin Trudeau ended up admitting this week that immigration levels to Canada in recent years exceed our capacity. The admission was twofold: it recognized for the first time the existence of a reception capacity, and therefore of a limit. And he recognizes that his government failed him.
I still wonder if Justin Trudeau is fully aware of the disproportion of the situation. To try to understand the scale, I took the liberty of carrying out a numerical exercise to simulate what would happen to Canada and Quebec if the scenario of the year 2023 became the norm and was repeated annually.
To give you an idea, the number of non-permanent residents jumped to 2.7 million in the first quarter of 2024 from 1.3 million in 2021. In less than two years, this number has more than doubled.
Canada’s population is growing at a rate rarely seen in history, a 98% increase due to unprecedentedly high immigration thresholds.
100 million in 2100
Last year, a public debate broke out concerning the initiative of the century, this dream of consultants close to Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party. The dream in question was to increase Canada’s population to 100 million by the year 2100. 100 million in 2100, nice slogan!
The project encountered strong resistance in Quebec, for two reasons. Welcoming immigration at this frantic pace seemed difficult to reconcile with an integration policy ensuring the survival of French.
Furthermore, this population boom in Canada over 75 years also meant a huge loss of weight for Quebec in Canada. In 2100, Quebec would only represent 15 to 18% of Canada’s population.
Acceleration
Notice to those who were worried about the Initiative of the Century: things are going much faster! Canada crossed the population milestone of 40 million on June 15, 2023. Well, Statistics Canada tells us that the threshold of 41 million was crossed last week. A million more in 9 months!
At the current 41 million, there are therefore 59 million inhabitants missing to reach the famous magic figure of 100 million. If Canada maintained the pace of 2023, it would take approximately 46 years to accommodate these 59 million. Which brings us to… 2070.
Did you find it exaggerated to aim for 100 million in 2100? At the current rate, it will happen thirty years earlier.
As for the weight of Quebec in Canada, it declines by 0.1 or 0.2% each year. At this rate, Quebec will only represent 15% of Canada by 2070, a politically devoid province, with very limited influence.
In this new Canada of 2070, with a population of 100 million, French would have become an unimportant language, except in Quebec, and even then…
Justin Trudeau has never explained it to us like that…