When I venture into predictions about federal politics, I have a hard time declaring the Liberals defeated. They are the natural party to govern Canada. They win elections almost systematically, regardless of the leader or the program. Even their colors and logo blend in with the Canadian flag.
Despite the catastrophic polls for Justin Trudeau, despite the significant gap created by Pierre Poilievre, I continued to think until very recently that the Liberal Party was going to return to the race as the election period approached. And perhaps snatch a surprise victory at the finish line, after having frightened voters about the dangers of a conservative government.
I’m starting to think that the Liberals are facing a bigger obstacle this time, one that may be difficult to surmount. Their management of immigration is sinking them. The Léger poll released this week says a lot about the evolution of public opinion regarding the loss of control of entry into Canada.
General disagreement
The Trudeau government is proposing to raise immigration thresholds to reach record numbers in the coming years. Who agrees with this direction? According to the survey, only 9% of Canadians and 8% of Quebecers! Never has a government acted on a fundamental issue with such low support among the population.
Nearly 60% of Canada’s population believes that the government should instead reduce the number of newcomers. We may say that a government should not govern by poll, but there is a limit to taking actions that transform the country, in such direct contradiction with social consensus.
What further complicates the matter for Justin Trudeau is the link established between the other crises and the loss of control over immigration. The survey shows that nearly 80% of the population clearly links the housing shortage to the drastic increase in the number of new arrivals in all categories.
The link is also made with overflows in the health system or the lack of educational resources. The number of new applicants puts considerable pressure on the systems.
Critical economists
Spontaneously, the population logically deduces that the massive arrival of new citizens to house, when there is already a shortage of housing, aggravates the problem. This perception is supported by studies by high-level economists who associate uncontrolled immigration and the housing crisis.
It should be noted that English Canada now essentially thinks like Quebec when it comes to immigration. The gap in perceptions no longer exists. In the other provinces, we want a reduction in the number of immigrants and almost a third of Canadians are even calling for a sharp reduction.
A politician must adjust, listen to the popular will. But can Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada, in a single year, make a complete turnaround on an orientation that has been so central to their vision? Difficult…