Ontario Premier Doug Ford sparked an uproar this week when he issued a warning to anyone hoping to immigrate to his province, which faces a dire shortage of workers as more than 290,000 jobs remain vacant.
“If you think you can come here to touch the BS and sit at home, that won’t happen,” Ford hammered at a press briefing, immediately being accused of speaking out loud. that many Ontarians are whispering. If Mr. Ford refused to apologize for his words, he was nevertheless quick to declare himself “pro-immigration” and to boast of welcoming immigrants from all over the world to the “Ford Fest”, the barbecue. summer that his family organizes every year in a very multicultural neighborhood in Toronto. Indeed, Mr. Ford’s Conservative government fully supports the increase in immigration thresholds announced last year by Ottawa, which aims to welcome 401,000 permanent residents to the country by 2021, an increase of 18% over the previous year. 2019. While the number of immigrants fell in 2020 due to the pandemic, falling to 184,000, the federal government is hurrying to meet its immigration targets for the years 2021, 2022 and 2023.
In all, more than 1.2 million new permanent residents Canada intends to welcome during this period, surpassing an old record dating from the beginning of the 20th century. Ontario alone is expected to welcome over 540,000 newcomers, pushing its population beyond the 15 million mark.
Quebec immigration policy
Whatever one thinks of Quebec’s immigration policy, its long-term result will lead to a drop in the demographic weight of the province in the Canadian federation. The province expects to welcome between 51,500 and 54,500 new immigrants this year, if we include the “catch-up” of 7,000 newcomers that the Caquista government plans to make after the 2020 drop linked to the border closure.
In 2019, during the first year of François Legault’s government, Quebec received 40,565 new permanent residents, or only 11.89% of the Canadian total. Alberta, which has half the population of Quebec, received 43,691, or 12.81% of the total. Ontario welcomed 153,395 newcomers, or 45% of the 341,000 new permanent residents accepted in 2019.
Quebec was not already receiving its share of immigrants based on its population within the Canadian federation before Mr. Legault came to power. In 2016, when Quebec accounted for about 23% of the Canadian population, it had received 18% of immigrants arriving in the country during that year. It is not impossible that this rate will reach 10% in the coming years.
In fact, voices are being raised in the rest of the country for Ottawa to increase its annual immigration thresholds to 450,000 or 500,000 newcomers. A group of influential Canadians, united under the banner of the Initiative of the Century, advocate an immigration policy aimed at increasing the Canadian population to 100 million people by the year 2100 to ensure the prosperity necessary for the maintaining social programs and increasing Canada’s influence on the international scene. The group, chaired by the former CEO of the Canada Pension Plan investment fund, Mark Wiseman, has among its members the CEO of the Business Council of Canada, Goldy Hyder, and Dominique Barton, the current Canadian Ambassador to China. He also enjoys the support of former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney.
However, in his inaugural speech delivered this week to the National Assembly, Mr. Legault reaffirmed his refusal to “voices demanding an ever greater number of immigrants”. Quebec already receives more immigrants than most developed countries, he said, and there is no way it will follow suit with the rest of the country. “Quebec cannot have the same immigration model as that of English Canada. The survival of French requires a different approach. “
This choice is not without consequences. The Chief Electoral Officer of Canada, Stéphane Perreault, announced last week that Quebec must lose a seat in the House of Commons as early as 2024, which would bring the number of its seats to 77, according to a new distribution of seats based on the representation formula provided for in the Constitution. The reactions to this announcement were quick, the leader of the Bloc Québécois, Yves-François
Blanchet, and the Caquist Minister of Canadian Relations, Sonia LeBel, both protested against any attempt to reduce Quebec’s weight in the federal Parliament. Friday, Mr. Legault himself summoned
Mr. Trudeau to “preserve the weight of the Quebec nation in the House of Commons”.
However, without constitutional amendment, it seems inevitable that Quebec will see its proportion of seats in the House of Commons decrease significantly over the next decades. This proportion has already fallen from 36% of the seats in 1867 to 23% in 2011. According to Mr. Perrault’s proposal, it would drop further to 22.5%. What will happen in ten years, when the rest of Canada prepares to welcome more and more immigrants while Quebec closes its doors more?