Lenin said that there are decades when nothing happens and weeks when decades pass. It seems that we are living in such a moment, because, within a week, the Cold War has returned and the nuclear threat has been brandished.
All the pundits thought Putin was bluffing. Europe and even Ukraine have failed to take warnings from US President Joe Biden and British intelligence of an impending Russian attack on Ukraine seriously enough. How could the balance reached after the horrible Second World War be called into question in such a crass way? What did President Putin have in mind?
At first glance, it seems that the Russian population itself was not prepared for a military invasion of Ukraine. The routine discourse of criticism of the West suddenly turned into a justification of the invasion because of genocide… Then to go one better with accusations of the development of chemical weapons which convinced no one…
Russia was traumatized by World War II. The memory of its heroes and of the hardships endured by the Russian people is fervently cultivated in the education system and in flamboyant military parades. In addition, any challenge to the information – strictly controlled – is brutally repressed.
There were, however, some telling clues. During the security conferences held in Munich, Putin strongly rejected plans to incorporate Georgia and Ukraine into NATO. He published an essay on the unity of the Russian and Ukrainian peoples, and every Russian soldier is bound to read it.
Moreover, it was to be expected that Russia would try to impose its interests in Europe given the formidable budgets invested in the modernization of the army since 2014 and the development of superior hypersonic armaments.
Putin’s logic
Putin is a great admirer of the white Russian writer in exile Ivan Ilyn, who was a defender of fascism. Opposed to the rule of law, he considered that politics boils down to the art of neutralizing one’s enemies. He developed a whole mystique of Russian nationalism, emphasizing national liberation and not that of ordinary citizens. Moreover, he considered Ukraine to be organically part of Russia. Many Russian officials like to quote Ilyin, including the Patriarchs of the Russian Orthodox Church. In 2005, Putin transferred the tomb of Ivan Ilyn to the great Moscow monastery of Donskoy with great fanfare.
A KGB officer, Putin was in Dresden when the Berlin Wall fell. He had to resolve to set fire to the KGB archives. For Putin, the Cold War never ended. The anti-Americanism that prevails in his speeches reflects a paranoia of the Soviet-era secret service. It never accepted the humiliation of demotion from superpower status to second-rate power.
The Orange Revolution reaffirmed Ukraine’s anchoring in the democratic camp. By contrast, in Belarus, pro-Russian President Lukashenko jailed his opponents and declared himself the winner in 2020 in an election disputed by the EU due to numerous irregularities. In the constitutional referendum of February 2022, the obligation not to possess nuclear weapons was abolished. Russian military forces are in Belarus today and are attacking Ukraine from the north.
Putin’s intervention in Ukraine responds to his imperial logic. If this presumption is justified, the association of European countries with NATO will have been beneficial to them and NATO will have protected the democratic movements of Europe.
The invasion of Ukraine demonstrates that he is serious in his demands and that he is impervious to humanitarian considerations.
Ideally, he would like to return to the situation that prevailed in 1997, when the countries of Eastern Europe were not part of NATO, and put an end to NATO expansion plans. The fact that the nuclear threat has been brandished constitutes a notorious escalation. Tactical nuclear missiles can pulverize targeted areas and serve as a warning.
The future
If Putin thought he would be hailed as a liberator in kyiv, he was seriously mistaken. Even Russian-speaking refugees from Ukraine are moving to countries other than Russia. If Putin doubted the existence of a Ukrainian nation, he will have contributed to consolidating and affirming it.
On the ground, the Ukrainian resistance is surprising and the redoubtable Red Army has shown failures. If Putin takes possession of Eastern Ukraine or all of Ukraine, it will be difficult for him to control the Ukrainian population. His logic risks leading him to other interventions.
Just as Putin does not want to back down and jeopardize his authority in Russia itself, the West cannot make concessions that risk reviving the specter of Munich, when France and Britain allowed Hitler to take possession of the Czechoslovak regions populated by Germans, thus putting an end to the Czechoslovak Republic.
It was in 1938. The sequel is very well known.
Due to the unforeseen developments, Putin’s cool calculation might be to stop fighting and negotiate a settlement with Ukraine. Will he?