In the middle of a block of HLM in the 15th arrondissement, in Paris, the neighborhood discount supermarket is always full. “It’s not like before, everything has gone up. The prices, right now, are too expensive!” : Chantal compares everything, with three children at home. “There, I wanted to take clementines and I saw that it was too expensive. I have to wait and buy them at the market. Maybe it will be cheaper.” Chantal has her strategy: “I change places. For example, there, I started with Intermarché and ended up with Lidl to have breakfast for the children. Everything has increased, so we look for the cheapest, when there are promotions.”
Same observation for Anne: it is the first prices that have increased. And compared to hypermarkets, inflation is twice as high in supermarkets. “It’s obvious that it has evolved. It’s been a third to a quarter more expensive, for at least three or four months, for fruit, vegetables, meat… In fact, it’s my son who eat it. I ration it a little, but hey, there are limits.”
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These price increases, the panelist NielsenIQ measured them. According to its latest analysis, as of March 1, 2022, 68% of food categories are affected by inflation. It is twice as high in supermarkets as in hypermarkets. The change over one year is +0.75% for supermarkets, +0.45% for local shops, +0.34% for hypermarkets. Still according to NielsenIQ, pasta (+11.4%), pulses (+3.4%), oils (+2.6%), roasted coffee (+2.5%) and rice ( + 2.4%) increased particularly between February 2021 and February 2022.
And the trend is even more marked on first-price private label products: +42% on pasta, +12% on coffee, +11% on oil. In short, the labels waltz, and Christiane, retired, follows her accounts on a daily basis. “I have to maintain my budget, so I made myself an Excel spreadsheet. I write down all my expenses and then I compare them with my bank statement. I need to know where I stand.”
As a result for Béatrice, the shopping budget eats away at the vacation envelope. “I see a good increase on essential products. My resources are low, so in terms of leisure, we have decreased a lot. I think that the holidays, anyway, will pay the price, whether it’s the extras or maybe reduce the duration… Well, this year, I tell myself that it’s going to be complicated.” And that’s starting to worry David, in training: “I see a price increase of things like pasta, rice. So I have to choose, just to eat. Yes it’s sad.”
NielsenIQ foresees at least two waves of increase: very quickly, around 3% for national brands, and then for all departments a little later, when the costs of wheat, sunflower or aluminum packaging will have again climb.