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The National Rally won 89 seats in the new Assembly, while the Ipsos institute predicted between “20 and 50” in its pre-first round poll. Stéphane Zumsteeg, director of the political-opinion department of the institute, evokes on franceinfo “a vote of rejection” more than a strategic vote.
“I don’t know if the Republican front is dead but it didn’t work last night”, analyzed Monday June 20 on franceinfo Stéphane Zumsteeg, director of the political-opinion department of Ipsos, to explain the vote in favor of the National Rally. Marine Le Pen’s party won 89 seats in the new Assembly, while the Ipsos institute predicted between “20 and 50” in its pre-first round poll.
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“What happened is very different from what we were able to measure during the second round of the presidential election, where part of the left voted significantly for Emmanuel Macron”continued Stéphane Zumsteeg.
“There is a very large, very majority, of the voters of Nupes or Ensemble who, when their candidate was not present in the second round, abstained.”
Stephane Zumsteegat franceinfo
Brice Teinturier, from the same polling institute, indicated on Sunday evening on France 2 that 72% of Ensemble voters (LREM / Modem / Horizons) abstained in the event of duels opposing the coalition of the left to the National Rally, against 16 % having voted for the Nupes and 12% for the RN. According to his estimates, Republican voters also abstained at 58% during RN/Nupes duels, while 30% voted RN and 12% for Nupes. On the other hand, he did not give figures concerning the vote of the voters of Nupes in the event of a duel RN / Together. “There is no more dam”, added Stéphane Zumsteeg.
“I don’t know if it’s definitive or not, but the ‘everything but Macron’ front worked and the ‘everything but Mélenchon’ front also worked a little”he said, pointing “the personalization of the ballot around these two people”. For Stéphane Zumsteeg, “This explains why the RN candidates, who had obtained in the 30% in the first round, were able to progress by at least 20 points and pass the 50% mark”. “It was not planned”he acknowledged, referring to “a vote of rejection” more than a strategic vote.