While immigration is one of the concerns of the majority at the start of the school year, everyone is imagining scenarios to get out of the rut. Many twists and turns may still occur before the bill arrives at the National Assembly in 2024.
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A thick fog hangs over the landing strip for the government’s immigration bill. The opposition leaders who saw Elisabeth Borne on Wednesday September 13 and Thursday September 14 are no further ahead. Some people understood that there would be no referendum. Others had the impression that in the law there would be a minimalist version on the regularization of undocumented workers. Another participant came away with the conviction that “the government does not know what it wants, nor where it is going”.
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Don’t panic, we assure the Ministry of the Interior. Official discussions, including those led by Gérald Darmanin, will only resume after the senatorial elections. In the meantime, it’s a never-ending day. LR does not want regularizations while the left wing of the majority is pushing for regularizations. “We just want to keep the text balanced,” defends an MP for whom a deal with LR is illusory even by sacrificing this famous article 3.” It will never be enough for them.” she says.
Abandon, vote, 49.3?
Behind the scenes, everyone imagines scenarios to get out of the rut. A sign that a certain weariness is taking over the ranks, a minister suggests letting the law die a beautiful death. “We are making a circular on regularizations, and we are returning as many people as possible to the border to show that the State is not powerless, we do not need this law,” he argues. An idea that makes an executive advisor jump: “now that the law is in the air, if it does not succeed, the French will say that we are doing nothing”. The hypothesis of a 49.3 is not excluded but there is a lot of reluctance among the majority because of the risk of a motion of censure.
According to a minister, “we have to take the risk of going to the vote, if it passes so much the better, if it doesn’t pass too bad.” An Assembly executive is also pushing for a vote: “if we have abstentions on the left thanks to regularizations it can happen!”
We won’t know the end of the story right away. The immigration bill will not reach the National Assembly before February 2024. Until then, there may be many twists and turns. You must first go through the Senate box in November. LR may make regularizations a red line, but the right does not have a majority in the Luxembourg Palace without the centrist group, which is committed to regularizations.